We start the week and it is the first Monday after the ECB’s decision to continue with its restrictive monetary policy that led it to raise interest rates again by 50 points last Thursday. Lately there has been the strange behavior that the Euribor usually compensates on Monday for the overreaction that it usually has on Friday, as if the markets were studying Christine Lagarde’s speech at the press conference in depth over the weekend.
Today we have also settled one of the issues that generated the most concern in the markets and it is about the fall and subsequent rescue of Credit Suisse, one of the icons of European banking that has finally been bought at a bargain price by its rival UBS, something that should calm everyone down but for the moment it has been welcomed with drops in the stock markets.
Last week the Euribor suffered the biggest drop in its history and on Friday it ended with a timid rise of 21 thousandths, with which we could be facing the end of the upward trend that began in February of last year. This week should confirm this change in This trend is something that we will see depending on the behavior of the banks, which is, together with inflation, the main concern of the ECB at the moment.
The only indicator that can tell us something about the behavior of the Euriboe is in the bonds that are falling sharply today, so the Euribor should go down happily, something that we will verify throughout the morning.
Meanwhile, the curious circumstance occurs that the 12-month Euribor is now trading (3.38%) below the official ECB rates (3.5%), a rarity that indicates that we are facing an uncertain outlook and suggests that interest rates could have peaked and with them also the Euribor.
Update: Finally, the Euribor has risen timidly today (up to 3,395%), so we could hope that the worst is over and we are entering a lateral trend.
