Myanmar’s democratic struggle, which began with the election of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2015, is at stake in the upcoming general election in Thailand. Thailand’s military junta, which seized power in a coup in 2014, has been providing support to Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, despite their atrocities against the Rohingya minority. The election in Thailand could have significant implications for Myanmar, as the junta’s support for the Tatmadaw may continue if their allies remain in power. As Myanmar continues to strive for democracy, the outcome of the Thai election could have a crucial impact on their progress.
The upcoming elections in Thailand are not only crucial for the Thai people who seek an end to quasi-military rule. They also hold significant meaning for the more than 1.5 million Myanmar refugees and migrants residing in Thailand, who hope for a new government to put an end to Bangkok’s support of Naypyidaw’s military regime. Thailand experienced a military coup in 2014 when General Prayuth Chan-ocha overthrew Yingluck Shinawatra’s elected government. He consolidated his rule through controlled elections in 2019. However, the latest polls suggest that support for Prayuth is waning, threatening Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s preferred position.
Many Myanmar activists in Thailand see the election as an opportunity for the country to reset its Myanmar strategy and collaborate with the anti-coup National Unity Government. However, they are also concerned about China’s potential influence on the new Thai administration, given China’s current support of the Myanmar military junta.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University, posited that a qualitatively different government under a different leadership would be necessary to take charge of the Myanmar portfolio. The current approach, according to Pongsudhirak, is bankrupt and harms Thailand’s international standing. A new administration needs to engage with the NUG, work with humanitarian channels and fiercely support the anti-coup resistance, which continues to gain ground.
Despite Thailand ranking as a flawed democracy and having endured twelve military coups since 1932, the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward party continue to hold considerable support in the polls. In contrast, Prayuth’s support is gradually eroding, and the election outcome is no longer determined solely by the numbers from the lower house election. The Senate’s 250 military-appointed seats will also be taken into account, and the main pro-democracy parties would need to secure over 75% of the seats (376) to form a government.
Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter and Yingluck’s niece, is leading opinion polls, prompting questions about what a coalition government led by the party could mean for ASEAN. Many hope that it might take a less intransigent position when responding to the 2021 coup, unlike the opposition from Thailand and its neighbours.
Despite this optimism, some remain sceptical about the ability of the new Thai government to challenge the Thai military’s preferences in Myanmar. While the Thai junta is openly supporting Myanmar’s coup leaders, ASEAN is divided in its response, with some members taking a stronger stance against the generals than others.
Myanmar’s military junta has arrested over 20,000 and executed four pro-democracy activists in the past year, drawing criticism from ASEAN members and the world. The Thai model has provided a springboard for Min Aung Hlaing and his allies, but it confronts more and more opposition. Furthermore, Myanmar’s issues have spilt over, causing an explosion in illicit narcotics, rising crime, waves of refugees, and transnational crime.
The election is significant for both Thailand and Myanmar. A new Thai government could re-assess its stance on Myanmar’s military junta, engage with the NUG, and offer channels of humanitarian assistance. It could serve as a beacon of hope for Myanmar’s people, who continue to fight for democracy despite the difficult conditions.
