Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, a Russian private mercenary group, has recently noticed signs of being isolated from the Russian leadership.
The US CNN reported on the 16th (local time) that Prigozhin struggled, including recruiting 40,000 troops to take control of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, but suffered huge losses as the fighting continued for several months. reported to have decreased.
Experts consider these allegations to be persuasive enough. Simply put, the Russian military is trying to reduce the influence of Wagner’s group and Prigogine by means of the Battle of Bahmut.
Earlier, Prigogine admitted that the Battle of Bahmut was a very difficult situation. In a separate video message, he said, “we need troops to defend the approaches (to Bahmut),” or he feared, “otherwise Wagner will be surrounded with Ukrainian forces inside Bahmut.”
Although Prigozhin requested help, it is understood that he was not receiving sufficient support from the Russian regular army.
Wagner has recently made a series of achievements, including taking the eastern part of the city of Bahmut. However, there are not enough troops to drive Ukrainian forces out of the rest of the country.
The US Institute of Warfare (ISW) said that Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu “likely seized the opportunity to deliberately commit Wagner’s troops to Bahmut in order to undermine Prigozin and thwart his ambitions for greater influence in the government.” high,” he said. Indeed, commanders Prigozhin and Wagner have been urging munitions from the Russians during the siege of Bahmut in recent weeks.
ISW interpreted it as an admission that “the Russian Ministry of Defense is increasingly limiting Prigozhin’s ability to recruit prisoners and secure ammunition” and that he has no choice but to rely more on the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Last year, Prigogine used his connections in politics to recruit criminals from prisons to expand Wagner’s size. And it has been emphasized that Wagner is a key force in the war in Ukraine. At the same time, he reprimanded the incompetence of Minister Shoigu, military commanders and regular soldiers.
However, Shoigu instead promoted the general whom Prigojin criticized. In addition, analysis has been raised that Wagner’s sudden suspension of recruitment of prisoners in February may also be Minister Shoigu’s plan. In other words, in order to recruit prisoners, approval from government agencies such as Russian prisons and the Ministry of Internal Affairs is required.
As such, Prigozhin is isolated inside Russia. The Russian leadership is also wary of Prigozhin’s excessive ambitions.
Alexei Mukhin, a member of the Valdai Discussion Club, known as an international group of Russian experts, criticized Prigozhin for his political ambitions. He also claimed that Prigogine was an incompetent commander who tried to cover up his shortcomings by blaming the Russian regular army. Prigogine replied, “I have no political ambitions. Give us ammunition.”
The only way for Prigogine to get out of the beleaguered situation is to eventually take control of Bahmut. Still, even Wagner acknowledged that Ukrainian resistance was very strong. “The Ukrainians are fighting door to door, they don’t want to leave, they are constantly sending more reserves and fighting fiercely,” said one Wagner soldier. In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his willingness to hold on, saying there was no possibility of withdrawing troops from Bahmut.
Under these circumstances, if Prigogine and Wagner were ultimately defeated at the Battle of Bahmut, their influence and political standing would inevitably diminish.
