Will Toulouse Experience a Decline in Real Estate Prices in 2023?

According to Me Henri Chesnelong, notary in Toulouse, the price curve should continue to flatten in 2023. Interview.

“A flattening of the curve”

Actu : After several years of sharp rise, prices seem to be stabilizing in Toulouse and Haute-Garonne. Could we expect that?

Henri : Me Henri Chesnelong: “The increase is still there but it is lower than in recent years. So, indeed, we see a flattening of the bullish curve. We could expect it because the increases had been quite brutal in our department in recent years, and it had to stop one day. And in addition, the increase in interest rates does not go in the direction of a rise in prices”.

Several neighborhoods will soon cross the symbolic bar of €5,000 per square meter, such as Saint-Cyprien or Arnaud-Bernard. What is your take on this?

Chesnelong : “It’s not a big surprise. Saint-Cyprien is a district whose prices have only risen in recent years. Arnaud-Bernard is a neighborhood that is growing little by little. But overall, there is a lot more movement in the neighborhoods that are in a range between 4,000 and 5,000 euros per square meter, much more than for the most expensive neighborhoods, which remain much more stable. There is also a catch-up effect in certain suburbs. In these neighborhoods a little further from the center, there had been very significant increases in certain sectors, of the order of 20% in recent years. We are no longer there today”.

Towards a slight drop in prices?

What are the trends for 2023? Will prices drop in Toulouse?

Chesnelong : “We think the price curve will continue to flatten. We have a drop in sales volumes which is transcribed a few months later on prices. For the end of 2022, there has been a drop in prices in the preliminary contracts, which is more noticeable for houses than for apartments. This price drop is believed to follow the small slowdown seen in sales volumes.”

Is the rise in interest rates slowing down the market, especially for first-time buyers?

Chesnelong : ” For sure ! The increase in interest rates weighs on the envelope of the total amount that purchasers can borrow. And there is another fact, perhaps: when you buy an old property, there is often work to be done. However, the cost of the work has increased significantly.

“Better to buy now than in six months!” »

In recent years, Toulouse households have preferred to move away from the Pink City for the municipalities or even the bordering departments. Do you think the dynamic will continue?

Chesnelong : “This dynamic continues, but differently. The distance has been increasingly important, in particular because there has been a catch-up effect on prices for the municipalities bordering Toulouse, which have found themselves with very high prices. Households who wanted a better living environment with a house and a garden had to go to the third ring of Toulouse instead. Digging a little further, Albi and Montauban have seen double-digit increases in recent years. This is no longer the case today. The increases are now much higher in Rodez or Carcassonne”.

Is 2023 still a good year to buy a house or an apartment?

Chesnelong : ” Yes I think so. Inflation will not stop and interest rates will continue to rise. If we have a purchase project, it is better to do it now than to postpone it for six months”.

Is Toulouse still a cheap city compared to other big cities?

Chesnelong : “This city has not suffered a huge bullish peak like Bordeaux. Toulouse therefore remains an affordable city in which we can still invest”.

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