Now it’s clear

As many Norwegians know these days: It is demanding to keep a steady course on slippery roads. For the Labor Party, it is like new snow on a sled, with constantly new shocking opinion polls showing worse figures than ever before.

The last few days have confirmed the trend. On Thursday, the Conservative Party received 36.9 percent support in a measurement for Dagsavisen, ANB and Fri Fagbevegelse, this magic number Jagland presented as an ultimatum to the voters to retain power. On the same day, TV 2 reported that the Labor Party on their forecasts is likely to lose 13 out of 17 mayors in the country’s 20 largest municipalities. In some measurements, Ap is measured as low as the 14s. These are dramatic numbers.

Haha, good luck

Many have therefore wondered about the lack of debate about major changes in management. On the contrary, the party has set out to re-elect the entire party at this spring’s national meeting, with a popular supplement in Tonje Brenna – in the vacant deputy seat that Hadia Tajik left a year ago. The election committee has not yet submitted its recommendation and the deadline for submitting input expires today, but as usual in the Labor Party, someone has talked together and agreed that this is how it should be done. Not everyone is willing to close the ranks.

Now it’s clear. When the Rogaland Labor Party entered Hadia Tajik as deputy leader candidate, there was unrest in the organization. Almost no one will put her up against Tonje Brenna, but if the Labor Party is to have two female deputy leaders, both the party secretary and the party leader must be men. The proposal makes the situation unsafe both for deputy leader Bjørnar Skjæran and for party secretary Kjersti Stenseng, who is also proposed to be replaced by Hamar Arbeiderparti in her own county Innlandet. The personal cabal has led to major discussions and strategic decisions in county and municipal teams around the country, and has revived all the old dividing lines that characterize every power struggle in the Labor Party.

The head of NRK still misses

On Thursday, party veteran Thorbjørn Berntsen advocated that Jonas Gahr Støre must resign, first through a post in a closed group on Facebook, then in Dagbladet. He believes the party leader must take the main responsibility for the poor polls.

– We must take action to avoid election defeat in 2025, Berntsen elaborated.

NRK reported on Friday that mayor Arne Fossmo in Ringebu not only wants to replace Skjæran and Stenseng, but also believes that Støre should consider his position.

There are still two months to go to the Labor Party’s national meeting. The naval battle is underway, and the personal dispute is already in danger of overshadowing the important political workshop a national meeting in a pressured party must be.

I still think Jonas Gahr Støre is safe. The poor opinion polls are a crisis for the Labor Party, but one thing is always more important: Power. After all, the party is in a position to rule the country. Dumping a sitting prime minister as party leader will only create even more unrest in the party which sees itself as a governing party more than anything else.

No, no, NRK

Right now it seems that Tonje Brenna as new deputy leader will be the only change in the party leadership. The Minister of Education is a former secretary general of AUF, became an adviser at the Prime Minister’s Office (SMK) after 22 July, has been county council leader in Viken and is widely respected. Both Bjørnar Skjæran and Kjersti Stenseng want re-election.

Hadia Tajik’s chances to comeback as deputy leader may seem correspondingly small. It is only one year since she had to resign because of the commuter housing cases – a complex of cases that weakens confidence not only in individual politicians, but in the political system itself. For those who miss Trond Giske in the party leadership, there are also many who hold her role in the metoo handling against her. It is telling that Trøndelag Ap also has one of the strongest decisions against Tajik as the new deputy leader, they go in for Brenna and re-election of the rest.

It is therefore more likely that Tajik will become a minister and perhaps also get a place in the central government, even if she competes there with Stavanger mayor Kari Nessa Nordtun. But it is still too early to conclude, a lot can happen before the national meeting. And even if Tajik faces opposition, there are good reasons why she has been the youngest ever advisor at SMK, youngest minister and former deputy leader.

Dahl must be spinning in his grave

The discussion lurks behind the positioning about who will succeed Støre. Although I think he is safe now, everything will change if the government has to resign – either before or after the next general election. Thorbjørn Berntsen himself has flagged, in a post on Facebook in January, that he believes the competition should then be between Tonje Brenna and his nephew Raymond Johansen, former party secretary and the capital’s city council leader. If the change is to happen quickly, it is probably an advantage for Johansen, with his weight and experience. In the longer term, both Tonje Brenna and Industry Minister Jan Christian Vestre are potential candidates – and in addition, of course, Hadia Tajik.

A new party leader must not come from the current party leadership, and in that case will also be blamed for an election defeat. But the power struggle is underway. Again, it became impossible to arrange quietly in the back room.