NOS News••Amended
Ukraine’s top military has vowed to continue defending the eastern city of Bachmut. Ukrainian President Zelensky says he has discussed the situation with top commanders and they have advised him not to retreat, but to step up defenses.
According to Zelensky, no other scenario is possible. “I told the commander-in-chief to find the right troops to help our men in Bachmut.” This seems to agree with an analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). He sees signs that Ukraine is deploying elite units in Bachmut.
In preparation for a possible withdrawal, the Ukrainians have already reinforced positions west of the city. But it does not appear that Ukraine intends to leave Bachmut. A week ago it seemed that the city would fall into the hands of the Russians.
The battle for Bachmut is a battle of attrition with heavy losses on both sides:
The Russians have been biting themselves for months on the town, which incidentally has little military value. Fighting there leads to heavy losses, also on the Ukrainian side. Nevertheless, former commander of the army Mart de Kruif does see the symbolic significance of it.
“It’s a terrible fight,” he says in it NOS Radio 1 Journal. “And then you also see that the symbolism of this fight is going to be decisive for this war. Because are you going to give up the city? Or are you going to show that you are willing to do anything to stop the Russians?” And that hard fight leads to many casualties. “That’s just the way it is in a war: symbolism sometimes transcends reason.”
Because the Russians continue to send troops to Bachmoet, De Kruif does not see the major Russian offensive developing. “That does have a relationship with Bachmoet,” he says. Anyone you send to Bachmoet cannot be used elsewhere, so “the battle there does have an effect that goes further than today”.
For Russia, the conquest of the city would mean a boost. It would be the first victory in more than six months and a first step towards an advance in the rest of the Donbas, something that Russian Defense Minister Shoygu also emphasizes.
“The liberation of Artemovsk continues,” he said, using the Soviet-era name for Bachmut. “The city is an important hub in the defense against Ukrainian forces in the Donbas,” he says. “Getting it under control will allow further offensive actions to be carried out deep behind Ukraine’s defense lines.”
ISW does not see such a further advance happening any time soon due to the heavy losses on the Russian side. “Probably their attack will end after they take the city, and possibly even before,” tweets the think tank.
Wagner group
The siege of Bachmoet is led by the Wagner group, at least the mercenary army itself claims. The group mainly recruits criminals from prisons. Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin called on the regular army to supply him with more ammunition. According to him, the Kremlin deliberately withholds ammunition, but Moscow rejects that accusation.
It once again puts relations between the Kremlin and Prigozhin on edge. It is also difficult for De Kruif to explain what exactly is going on between those two parties. But he suspects that it indicates logistical problems on the Russian side.
“It also shows exactly the function of Bachmoet: everything you send there, the Russians cannot send anywhere else. So that’s why that front actually comes to a standstill and that in itself is a win for Ukraine.”
Problem at home
But according to De Kruif, the Russians cannot do without the Wagner group “because it allows them to draw on a whole arsenal of people they take from prisons or other countries, for example”. According to De Kruif, these are “dispensable” for the Russians. “Regardless of the losses, you can continue to deploy such a group.”
However, this stream of recruits is also coming to an end, ISW also sees. If tens of thousands of these men die, they too can no longer be used in more important battles. And De Kruif sees this as a long-term problem for Putin.
“Because he cannot mobilize further, then he will have a problem at home. The losses are so great that it will be a challenge to replenish them in the coming weeks and months.” According to De Kruif, what that means for the future is still uncertain. “But it does show how terrible this war is when we talk about losses on both sides.”
