The majority of Belarusians are against Lukashenko, but fear him / Article

Kudzko is convinced that the Lukashenko regime has not succeeded in completely suppressing the desire of Belarusians to protest against his regime.

The Belarusian economy is struggling

The internationally isolated leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, visited Beijing this week, where he was warmly received by Chinese President Xi Jinping. In connection with this visit, a question was raised, what is the purpose of Lukashenko’s trip – economic necessity, desperation or fulfilling the duties of the Kremlin’s envoy?

Belarus expert Alena Kudzko said that Lukashenko wanted to show his importance with this visit: “He is trying desperately to be important. Right now he literally has no one to talk to except Putin. He recently visited Zimbabwe and it was presented as a huge foreign policy success. Of course , a private meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is a major achievement, because not everyone can get an official reception with Xi Jinping. It allows Lukashenko to give the impression that he is politically important, that he still has power.”

However, Lukashenko’s trip to China also shows that the economy of Belarus is having a hard time.

“Despite bragging that Western sanctions are not working, that we are doing well, that we have the Russian market, the economic condition of Belarus is not good.

The gross domestic product is definitely going down, but the Russian market is not as strong as it looks. Therefore, in order to solve economic problems, Lukashenko needs to find investment sources. His dream of rapprochement with Asia is an old story, Lukashenko tried it before, but he didn’t quite succeed, so this was his chance to move forward,” Kudzko thinks.

Belarusian soldiers would not be motivated to fight in Ukraine

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago, the question whether Belarus could join the war with its army has been regularly raised.

When asked by Latvian Radio whether the Belarusian army wants to go to war, Kudzo answered that it is difficult to say. “On the one hand, in Belarus, support for direct military involvement in Ukraine is very low.

Belarusian military personnel are not fools, they know very well that the army is not very combat capable. It has no chance against the Ukrainian army. Belarusian soldiers are neither motivated nor ready to die for absolutely nothing.

However, I do not think that involvement in the war would lead to a widespread rebellion in the army. It would depend on what exactly the Belarusian army would do in Ukraine,” says Kudzko.

The majority of Belarusians are against Lukashenko

Many Belarusian political activists are in prison, while some have been forced to flee abroad. Therefore, the question arises whether there are still people left in Belarus who would be ready to face Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime.

Kudzko believes that there are still many people in her homeland who do not support Lukashenko:

“I would still say that the majority of Belarusians are against him. But people see the repression that Lukashenko has unleashed in the country, so they make very rational decisions. If you speak out against the regime, you will most likely end up in jail or be forced to leave. That’s why it cannot be considered a reasonable and rational action.

People are still against the regime, but they currently see no possibility of mass collective action for the simple reason that Lukashenko is too violent and suppresses any opposition.

But in the future, at the slightest opportunity, for example, when the repressions relax, people could again try to protest and turn against Lukashenko.”

A formally independent Belarus is more beneficial for Russia

Recently, the Kremlin’s plan for the complete capture of Belarus by 2030 came to light. Kudzko does not think that Russia will succeed in swallowing up Belarus completely. She pointed out that the matters mentioned in this document have long been discussed in public, for example, the formation of the state of the Russian-Belarus Union.

“Of course, Lukashenko is trying to sabotage it as much as possible, because it is not in his interests. However, Russia is gradually but persistently doing everything to integrate Belarus more and more.

But I don’t think their goal is to officially declare Belarus a part of Russia. They are even better off if Belarus retains nominal independence with voting rights internationally.

At the same time, it would be economically, militarily and financially fully integrated into Russia and would carefully follow and fulfill Moscow’s orders,” the expert says.

Kudzko added that the implementation of the Kremlin’s plan will largely depend on how Russia fares in the war in Ukraine.

CONTEXT:

Protests against the regime of Belarusian authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko intensified in Belarus after the presidential elections held in August 2020. The incumbent President Lukashenko was declared the winner, however, the opposition accused the ruling regime of extensive falsification of election results and demanded Lukashenko’s resignation. The opposition considers Svyatlan Cihanouska to be the real winner of the election.

At the height of the protests, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Belarusian cities, but the protests were suppressed by force. Many opposition supporters are imprisoned or have fled abroad. The European Union strengthened sanctions against the Lukashenko regime.

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