After agreement on Northern Ireland: a lot of room for misinterpretation

British Prime Minister Sunak describes the agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol as a great success. Crucial aspects of the agreement, however, are interpreted very differently.

The agreement with the EU in the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol is a great success for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. He did what his predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were unable to do: in negotiations, he made improvements to the unpopular protocol that has made trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland more difficult since Brexit and has become a domestic political burden.

Sunak is now being celebrated as the one who finally implemented Brexit. The prime minister himself approved the new agreement with the EU, the so-called “Windsor Framework“, touted full-bodied on Monday.

A compromise that bears the signature of the EU

In the House of Commons, he stressed to MPs that the UK had actually regained control with this agreement – a formulation alluding to the campaign slogan “Take back control”, which was once used to promote Brexit. Sunak also announced that with the current agreement, there is no longer a sense of a border in the Irish Sea.

Since Monday, however, experts and lawyers have been poring over the text, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the reality is more multifaceted than Sunak portrayed it. The agreement is a compromise that, as expected, also bears the signature of the EU. It is striking that key aspects of the agreement are currently being interpreted quite differently.

What is known about the “Windsor Framework”.

In order to facilitate trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, there will be “green lanes” and “red lanes” when handling goods transport. Transports that go via Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and thus into the EU market are still subject to all existing customs and control regulations, i.e. they take the “red lane”. On the other hand, there are considerable simplifications for goods transports that remain in Northern Ireland, i.e. take the “green lane”, provided the traders are registered as “trusted traders”.

However, it is not entirely true that the impression of a border in the Irish Sea will disappear, as Prime Minister Sunak suggests. Because customs declarations will still be required for the “green lane”, and there will still be controls – both of which, however, are to a much lesser extent than before. In return, the EU receives access to IT systems with which the movement of goods can be controlled. If Great Britain refuses this access, the EU can repeal the “green lanes”.

There should also be improvements in the offer in Northern Ireland. So far, only food and medicines that meet EU standards have been allowed to be brought into Northern Ireland or produced and sold there. In the future, the Northern Irish population should be able to receive the same products as the British in other parts of the country. Among other things, this allows the sale of medicines that have been approved by the British but not by the EU medicines authority.

Trading in seed potatoes and fresh meat products should also be possible in the future. The so-called “sausage war” is thus considered over. However, some food products must be labeled as not intended for the EU. There will also be simplifications for parcel shipping for private households and companies, and anyone who wants to take their pet to Northern Ireland will no longer need special vaccinations and certificates for the animal in future, provided it has a microchip.

Misinterpretations and open questions

For the Brexit hardliners and the DUP – the Democratic Unionist Party, which has been blocking the formation of a regional government in Northern Ireland for months – it is of crucial importance whether and to what extent Northern Ireland is still subject to “EU dictates”. The DUP complains of a democratic deficit because EU laws apply in Northern Ireland, but Northern Ireland has no say.

That should now change with the so-called “Stormont Brake”. Accordingly, the regional parliament “Stormont” in Belfast can slow down new EU regulations if they have serious effects on the everyday life of Northern Ireland. The British government could then veto it, and a “Joint Committee” – a body made up of representatives from Great Britain and the EU – would then have to work out a solution.

With the “Stormont Brake” the reading is different. According to Prime Minister Sunak, it will restore popular and institutional sovereignty to Northern Ireland. The mechanism is sometimes celebrated as giving Northern Ireland a fundamental say. On the other hand, the EU side apparently wants it to be understood more as an emergency solution for exceptional cases.

There is also a need for clarification with regard to the future role of the European Court of Justice. On the British side it is emphasized that the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice for Northern Ireland has been severely curtailed. 1,700 pages of EU legislation on VAT, medicines and food safety have been deleted, it said, which also means that the Court’s jurisdiction in these areas is lost. As a result of the new agreement, not even three percent of the EU regulations will apply in Northern Ireland in the future. At the moment, however, there are still many unanswered questions related to this passage.

How it goes on

The “Windsor Framework” is currently being legally examined by various parties. Prime Minister Sunak has announced a vote in the House of Commons on the agreement, but has left the timing open. It is also not yet known whether a parliamentary vote would only be a question of political approval, or whether changes to the law will be necessary.

Prime Minister Sunak would certainly have the necessary majority in the House of Commons, as the opposition Labor Party has already announced that it will vote in favor of the agreement. However, failing to achieve a majority of his own with his conservative party would weaken Sunak’s position.

At the moment, the Kingdom is mainly waiting for the reaction of the Northern Ireland DUP. The hope is that she will accept the agreement and agree to form a government, which she has so far refused to do, citing the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In the best-case scenario, Northern Ireland could get a regional government again in the near future. However, it is unclear how long the DUP will examine the “Windsor Framework” and when they intend to announce their decision.