[Current Affairs and Military]The disintegration of the Russian Federation has begun | Ukraine | Military Intelligence | Economic Sanctions

[The Epoch Times, February 26, 2023]In today’s society, weapons and the role of the army are given a deeper meaning than killing. Strong military power is often used as a deterrent to maintain world peace and human security. The war, though becoming covert, never ceased.[Current Affairs and Military Affairs]Take you to the forefront to see the details and truth of the struggle between good and evil.

In the past year, after hundreds of thousands of young and lively Russians were sent to their graves on the Ukrainian battlefield, Putin still incited national sentiments at a fireworks show attended by tens of thousands of people, and secretly used nuclear weapons to destroy mankind. threat to underscore the legitimacy of its logic of brutal aggression. Shockingly, the truth about the war was buried deep within the fervent Russian nationalism.

On the night of February 23 last year, many Ukrainians thought it was a normal night, but what happened a few hours later made their lives never the same. At the same time, not a few people around the world already knew what was likely to happen the next morning, and U.S. intelligence predicted the start of the war with near precision. Although Kiev appeared somewhat reserved and passive at the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian military seemed to have a good idea of ​​what was to come.

Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, told the media this week that his team was as confident a year ago as it is today when they knew Ukraine would defend itself against Russian offensive. However, what they did not expect was that Russia made such an astonishing mistake in evaluating the Ukrainian armed forces.

On the morning that Putin ordered troops to cross into Ukrainian territory, Russia’s oligarchs were called to the Kremlin and told they had “no choice but to support the invasion”. The result was unprecedented Western sanctions, which destroyed much of their wealth and severely hit the Russian economy.

At the time, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain had hit Russia with the biggest and toughest package of economic sanctions ever, following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The measures included freezing the assets of all Russian banks in Britain and a pledge to expel the country from international payments system SWIFT. Countries that account for about 50 percent of the world economy are now exerting maximum economic pressure on Russia, which accounts for only 2 percent, he said.

More than 100 entities and individuals were sanctioned, including Russia’s largest defense industry companies and financial oligarchs. Some individuals had their assets frozen and their travel restricted. This is not yet the most comprehensive and severe sanctions package launched by the West.

But the war cost the Ukrainians much more, of course, than the Russians under sanctions. More than 8,000 civilians were killed, including more than 480 children. Ukraine has been hit by thousands of missiles and drones across the country, destroying infrastructure and razing homes.

However, when the war that Putin provoked finally ends, it is not Ukraine that will suffer the most but Russia, which may be at the cost of the disintegration of the Federation. Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the West did not understand the truth of the matter. The process of disintegration of the Russian Federation has already begun, and no negotiations or compromises can stop it. This trend is irresistible. ‘I hope everyone understands that,’ he said. If you think that negotiations with Putin or anyone else will prevent the decline of the Russian Empire, you are very wrong. Just like you can’t stop the earthquake in Turkey, you can’t stop the earthquake in Russia, it’s already started.

Signs of this internal chaos in Russia are first seen in the military. Prigozin, head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group, posted a photo of the body of a Wagner soldier on the night of February 22. He said: “Gerasimov and Shoigu have decided to let these people fight as they see fit. Time to die. Wagner soldiers are dropping like flies for lack of supplies and ammunition.” Had the Russian high command provided them with enough ammunition, not so many of his men would have been killed. He accused Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shoigu of withholding ammunition and supplies from Wagner’s troops in an attempt to destroy the company, tantamount to treason.

Responding to the allegations, the Russian military said, “This is an attempt to create divisions within the close interaction and support mechanisms between the various units of the Russian military and is entirely helping the enemy.”

While the back-and-forth spat temporarily subsided after Wagner’s mercenaries were resupplied with ammunition on Feb. 23, it has also fueled speculation about the role of the paramilitary force in the war in Ukraine and tensions with Putin’s military elite .

Prigozin, who spent the last decade in prison for robbery and fraud before the collapse of the Soviet Union, was Putin’s aide for many years. Later, his catering company swept government contracts, earning him the title of “Putin’s chef.” His Wagnerian mercenaries fought alongside Russian forces in Syria and fought for Russia’s geopolitical interests in conflicts across Africa.

Evidence is mounting that the Kremlin has moved to rein in Prigozin’s excessive political influence, ordering him to stop public criticism of the Ministry of Defense and ordering state media to stop mentioning Prigozin and Wagner.

In this infighting, Wagner seems to have been at a disadvantage. Because the Wagner Group is prohibited from continuing to recruit soldiers from Russian prisons. If Wagner’s troops continue to participate in the battle near Bakhmut and maintain the same high casualties as they are now, then without follow-up personnel, this force that has committed countless crimes in the Ukrainian war will be quickly exhausted. do. This is also likely to be the real intention of Putin and the top Russian military officials.

It appears that the Wagner Group has played an increasingly prominent role in the war in Ukraine, spearheading a months-long assault on the eastern city of Bahmut in the Donetsk region. Progress has been minimal, but casualties are staggering.

Russia is likely to be using this disreputable, unbridled force to whatever degree it can on the battlefield. While reaping battlefield benefits, use the hands of Ukrainian troops to wipe it out, so that when needed in the future, all war crimes will be held on the head of the Wagner Group. At that time, Prigozin may not even have a chance to defend himself, and he is likely to face such a tragic end.

Prigozin, who is beset by internal and external enemies, also seems to have a sympathizer, that is Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. On February 19, Kadyrov posted on Telegram that on the Ukrainian battlefield, the Wagner Group, which fought side by side with the Russian army, has achieved impressive results, which shows that private military companies are a necessity. The Putin ally said he planned to create his own private army, modeled on the Wagner Group.

The forces led by Kadyrov and Prigozin, for the most part, operate independently of the regular Russian military command. Both are staunch Putin allies, but both have publicly opposed Russia’s military leadership.

Kadyrov Jr. is the son of former Chechen president Ahmed Kadyrov, who was assassinated in a bombing in Grozny in 2004. Kadyrov Jr. and Prigozin have formed some kind of tacit alliance. They have been cooperating to amplify criticism of the top Russian military and call for a more favorable promotion of war in their own way.

Both Kadyrov and Prigozin are personal followers of Putin, with little loyalty to the Russian Federation, and even deep hostility due to historical reasons and personal grievances. Now that the war has progressed, Putin has been unable to escape the crimes committed against Ukraine or against the Russians. No matter how the war ends, these two people will become hidden dangers to the Russian Federation with the end of the Putin regime.

The Russian Federation consists of 89 federal subjects, including 21 non-Slavic autonomous republics. The percentage of Russians among Russian citizens (currently around 80%) is decreasing. Other ethnic groups, notably Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash and Chechens, are growing. The loyalty of these people to the central government is directly proportional to the care they receive from the regime. It is hard to imagine how the regime that failed in the war could get what was once used by the regime after the regime sent their young people to the battlefield as cannon fodder. Ignore the loyalty of the crowd.

Ukrainian officials believe they can and will win this war, and their predictions of the disintegration of the Russian Federation may be happening.

In Russia, however, support for Putin and the war in Ukraine remains strong, at least on the surface. On the night of February 23, what was held in Moscow was not a vigil to commemorate the victims of the war, but a fireworks celebration to commemorate the war that is estimated to have killed more than 100,000 Russian soldiers and had no chance of winning.

Written by: Xia Luoshan (a reporter from The Epoch Times, who has experienced more than ten years of military life, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Production: Current Affairs Military Production Team
Pay attention to “Current Affairs Military-Charlotte Mountain”:https://www.ganjing.com/zh-TW/channel/1f6pro4fi585ppZp9ySKkwd0W19f0c

Editor in charge: Lian Shuhua