As early as November 2021, Ukrainian intelligence had an accurate map of the Russian invasion.
For many months, Russia has been amassing troops to the Ukrainian borders. Alarming warnings with a detailed plan of attack came from intelligence, but the Ukrainians continued to be assured that everything would work out. February 24 caught many unexpectedly, according to TSN.
November 2021. Near the borders of Ukraine, under the guise of regular exercises, almost a hundred thousand Russian military are accumulating. “This accumulation will continue and will reach a peak around the end of January,” – so on November 21 in an interview with the Military Times, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, directly says that Russia is preparing an invasion.
“Russia is preparing to attack in late January or early February. Such an attack would likely include airstrikes, artillery, as well as tank attacks with amphibious assaults in the east, in Odessa and Mariupol, and an invasion through neighboring Belarus. The attack that Russia is preparing will much more destructive than anything seen before in the conflict that began in 2014,” Kirill Budanov notes in an interview with Military Times on November 21, 2022.
The publication also publishes a map of strike directions. In a few months it will become clear – it was very accurate. However, then Budanov’s forecasts seemed too gloomy to many. Andrey Illarionov, an economist and popular commentator on Ukrainian channels, categorically declares: this is disinformation. “So far, there is no threat of a large-scale offensive by Russian troops on Ukraine. A large-scale offensive by thousands of groups, BTG, according to this map, published on November 20 on the Military Times resource along with an interview with the head of the GUR Budanov, is not an option. This map is a vivid example of a propaganda war… This is disinformation,” he says from the screens.
December 2021 – January 2022. The number of Russian troops on the border is doubling. But despite this, Ukrainians continue to be reassured.
Foreign intelligence services share detailed information about the Russian threat with Ukraine. Budanov confirms that these data coincide with Ukrainian ones, and the numerous warnings and even dates of a possible invasion, which were called by the Western media with reference to sources in the special services and governments, are already noticeably irritating the Ukrainian authorities, who are concerned about the flight of investors and other consequences of the sowed alarm for the economy. On January 19, President Zelensky writes down an address that critics reproach him to this day. “These risks exist for more than one day, and they have not become larger, the hype around them has become more. Everything is under control and everything is going according to plan. In April we will celebrate Easter, in May, as always, at the weekend, the sun, barbecue, Victory Day, ”the president says.
Some top officials continue to openly question the warnings from the US. They even mock: we ask you to announce in advance all the dates of the upcoming attack. Most of the people, seeing that three, four, five “exact dates” had already passed, realized that this was just intimidation of people and an attempt to sow panic. I don’t know the real reasons why the United States is doing this, but it definitely doesn’t work in favor of the Ukrainian economy…,” Daviv Arakhamia tells reporters.
While Western sources in Ukraine are criticizing for alarmism, Russian officials, as well as the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko, also unanimously assure: no, no, they will not attack.
In mid-February, foreign states begin a mass evacuation of their embassies from Kyiv and call on their citizens to immediately leave Ukraine. Even military instructors are ordered to leave. Russia is also evacuating its diplomats. At the Boryspil airport, planes with Western weapons land one after another. These transporters are only light defensive weapons, because even those countries that are more supportive of Ukraine do not believe that we will last more than three days.
Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba recalls his meeting at the White House on February 22. They come out and each one literally gives me a farewell look. It seems that a consultation of doctors has just taken place and they decided that you have stage 4 cancer. Each of them shook my hand, took such a sympathetic sigh and moved on… Everyone agreed that 72 hours and the end of Ukraine,” he says.
Even President Biden, says Kuleba, hinted to him that it was time to think about children and evacuation. “He says to me:” Mr. Minister, you should always think about your children. “When the President of the United States tells you in the White House, in the Oval Office, that it is, of course, good that you are a minister and think about how to protect your country , but first of all, you are a father and should think about your children, ”Kuleba recalled.
Zelensky invites President Biden to come to Ukraine, but then he does not accept the invitation. Foreign leaders come to Ukraine almost every day. By their presence, they seem to protect Ukraine from catastrophe, but, of course, this is an illusion. The last on February 23 to visit Ukraine are the closest neighbors – the presidents of Lithuania and Poland. Subsequently, the Polish president admits that he said goodbye to Zelensky with the feeling that this could be the last meeting with him. “Yes, there was an opinion that I see him, perhaps for the last time. Yes, there was a moment when we said goodbye. And I got goosebumps when he himself said that this could be our last meeting, ”Duda recalled.
Charter flights take off one after another from Boryspil, taking away oligarchs, some deputies and businessmen. In just one day – February 13, there were two dozen such flights. On February 23, after Putin recognizes the sovereignty of quasi-entities in the Donbas, a state of emergency is introduced in Ukraine. Hours before the overnight Russian invasion, the most popular experts continue to insist that the threat is no greater than ever.
“Imagine the incredible and very bad: a full-scale war has begun. What is Putin’s goal? A 200,000-strong group is not enough to capture even one large city. They will not succeed in capturing vast territories or cities. This is impossible. For example, Mariupol or Kharkov. Mariupol has 400,000 inhabitants, it is impossible to capture it,” Aleksey Arestovich says on the air.
“Where Russia can suffer losses, they do not move. Those troops that are now standing along the borders of Ukraine are not deployed to the states of war,” Oleg Zhdanov convinces.
Authorities later explained that the military was preparing as expected, but the rest of the Ukrainians had to rely on their own premonitions to avoid panic and chaos.
At the same time, deputies from the Opposition Platform for Life knew exactly about the attack. Many representatives of the Medvedchuk faction flew out of Ukraine in advance and have not yet returned.
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