As can be extracted from the Report ‘World drug use 2023’ conducted by the IQVIA Institute, the uncertainties around global spending on medicines seem to clear up after the last three years where the pandemic has had its consequences. Therefore, after a year that seems to mark the end of a health crisis, world market growth will return to projected rates by 2024 despite fluctuations from year to year and geographical variations.
Now, over the next 5 years, it is still expected that biggest drivers of drug spending continue to be global vaccines against Covid-19. And, beyond the pandemic, the rest of the outlay in this sector will be marked by innovation and offset by losses of exclusivity and lower costs of generic and biosimilar medicines.
Specifically, the most striking data in this report indicate a forecast in which global spending on drugs will reach 1.9 trillion dollars (1.8 trillion euros) by 2027, representing an increase of 3 to 6%. annual. In addition, significant growth is expected, especially in two therapeutic areas in this period: Oncologyof 13 to 16%, e Immunologyfrom 3 to 6%.
As for medicines intended for cancer treatment, the demand will reach approximately 370,000 million dollars (350 million euros) by 2027, almost double the current level. A period of about 5 years in which, in addition, it is expected that 100 new treatments in this discipline, which translates into an approximate cost of 184,000 million dollars (173,000 million euros), thus obtaining a strong benefit.
And, in the field of Immunology, a disbursement of 177,000 million dollars (167,000 million euros) is predicted in treatments for disorders. An investment that will be driven by the launch of biosimilars and the growing number of new patients. Other therapeutic areas with higher cost forecasts are Cardiovascular y Antidiabetics.
Another area that has not been mentioned before, but that will also experience great growth in the pharmaceutical market will be new neurological therapies. These are contributing to the growth in spending in this specialty, mainly due to the increased use of anti-migraine drugs or potential treatments for rare diseases, Alzheimer y Parkinson. But well, as a whole, the industry expects overall growth trends to moderate after the disruptions from the pandemic.
Expenditure on vaccines and therapies Covid-19
However, the report states that the coronavirus will continue to affect pharmaceutical markets globally. In fact, the spending figure could expand to 500,000 million dollars (470 million euros), taking into account the period from 2020 to 2027.
The greatest increase in the volume of vaccines and antivirals is expected in Latin America, Asia and Africa. A reality that is due to the combination of population growth and limited access to these drugs and treatments. On the contrary, in the United States and Europe they will have a slight increase due to the high percentage of the immunized population and the lower impact of the virus. In China specifically, pharmaceutical spending growth is expected to slow, with positives driven by greater acceptance and use of new originator medicines and offset by off-patent and generic price pressures.
But well, in general, the growth of spending on medicines in developed economies, with the exception of drugs against Covid-19, will continue according to the report at relatively stable rates, with new products offset by patent expirations or those a little more innovative for the treatment of increasingly prone diseases among the population.
In conclusion, it is important to remember that despite the pandemic, drug use grew by 36% over the last decade, driven by greater access to drugs in regions around the world. Although the differences continue and countries with higher incomes Low-income countries continue to see declines and difficulties in accessing medicines, which could jeopardize improvements in global health.
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