Analysts noted that the Russian ground forces operate within the framework of conventional doctrinal formations and units, and not as part of battalion tactical groups or other temporary structures.
“The absence of several tank units indicates that the Russian army is experiencing problems with the replacement of equipment, especially tanks lost during previous unsuccessful offensive operations,” the report says.
At the same time, ISW points out that the Russians may still have some restored mechanized units in reserve. However, bringing these reserves into the Luhansk region is unlikely to significantly change the course of the ongoing offensive.
“The Russian offensive will continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum when the last reserves are brought in, but the likelihood of achieving their goals or operationally significant victories is not high,” the specialists explained.
The main turning points in military operations:
- Fyodor Venislavsky, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, said that Russian troops had already deployed all their combat-ready units to the front lines in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as to parts of the Zaporozhye region.
- By April, Ukrainian forces will reportedly be able to deploy only 50 tanks in the front-line areas provided by the West, out of the promised 320 tanks.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the 1st “DPR” Army Corps and the 2nd “LPR” Army Corps are official formations of the RF Armed Forces.
- The founder of PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin continued several directions of attack against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
- The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, noted that he might be interested in creating his own paramilitary company after completing public service.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense falsely claimed that Ukrainian officials were preparing a false flag attack to accuse Russia of violating the Nuclear Safety Convention on the eve of the 11th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly.
- The head of the Russian Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin said that the completed investigation into the explosion on the Kerch bridge in Crimea on October 10, 2022 proves that the Ukrainian special services planned and carried out the attack.
- The attack would have been a legitimate military operation, not a terrorist act, had it been carried out by Ukraine.
- A Russian millblogger stated that Russian troops crossed the Russian border with the Kharkiv region and occupied unspecified border settlements.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations northwest of Svatovoe and in the Kremennaya area.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces were reinforcing their positions on the front lines west and northwest of Kremennaya.
- A well-known Russian milblogger claimed that the degraded formations of the PMC “Wagner” are narrowing the scale of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut region due to a lack of forces.
- It is reported that Russian troops continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk and in the area of Vuhledar.
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops carried out a localized ground attack near Novodanilovka, Zaporizhia region, and released footage showing Wagner fighters arriving in Melitopol, Zaporizhia region.
- The occupiers in Crimea have nationalized Ukrainian property worth tens of billions of rubles (at least $10 million) and plan to use the proceeds from the sale of this property to support the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
- Russian drone manufacturer Lancet and a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov concern are reported to be producing drones in a public sauna.
- The Ukrainian military said Russian forces are unable to repair upgraded S-300 surface-to-air missile systems near the front lines due to logistical problems and are forced to transfer these systems to manufacturing plants in Russia.
