There is a lot of opposition to developing wind power on land in Norway. This is confirmed by Nettavisen’s recent poll among mayors in wind power-related municipalities: Only 2 out of 79 say a clear yes to more local wind power.
At the same time, the government trusts that onshore wind power will solve a good part of the challenge of obtaining enough power.
Statnett has announced that Norway may have a power deficit as early as 2026 if we do not produce more power.
– I don’t think we need a plan B. We are completely dependent on getting more municipalities involved in wind power, but we don’t want to drag projects over people’s heads, State Secretary Elisabeth Sæther (Ap) told Nettavisen when she was asked about an eventual alternative to wind power, since so few want it.
Also read: Violent opposition to wind power: Only 2 out of 79 municipalities say yes
Heading towards a thunderous power deficit
The fact that more power is needed is emphatically established Energy Commission’s report that was submitted on 1 February.
The report states that there is a need for 40 TWh of new power by 2030. Norway produces about 150 TWh Today.
“The review of developments in energy use shows that there is reason to expect growth in the demand for power of between 21 and 35 TWh by 2030,” the commission writes in the report.
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Growth is expected to continue until 2050. Although energy efficiency may slow consumption growth somewhat, it will not be enough to cover demand, states the commission:
“Without new permits, there is no prospect of more than up to 9 TWh of new power production by 2030,” writes the commission.
In plain language, this means a power deficit of at least 20 tWh if more people do not agree to wind power or more hydropower.
Offshore wind will make a significant contribution, but not until the beginning of the 2030s at the earliest.
Read also: Would rather have nuclear power than wind power: – The whole energy policy is in shambles!
– We have to act fast as pigs
Investments in power supply are falling for the fifth year in a row, while investments in industry are increasing sharply, reports SSB on Thursday morning.
– This is a very unfortunate development, and bad news for everyone concerned with low electricity prices. Today’s energy policy prevents investments in renewable energy. This will mean that in a few years we will have a power deficit, and become dependent on other countries’ renewable energy initiatives to get the power we need.
That’s what Åslaug Haga, head of Renewable Norway, says. She believes that it is now urgent to find solutions:
– We have an energy policy that is designed for a different time. It takes many years to get a license to build. Renewable energy is taxed higher than oil and gas. The politicians need to change this as fast as they can. We need more renewable energy to be able to support industrial development, and not least to ensure low electricity prices for Norwegian consumers, says Haga.
– The only one that goes fast enough
The backdrop, which many readers often point out in Nettavisen’s comment section, is the emission targets in the Paris Agreement.
Without large-scale electrification, including the power supply to the shelf in the North Sea, it will not be possible to achieve these goals, states a recent report from Thema Consulting.
– The climate targets trump a lot – but should one rather put these on hold in order to achieve a lower price? We have to realize that it costs money to bring about the green shift, says Tor Reier Lilleholt, head of analysis at Volue Insight.
Read also: Fresh analysis: – Electrification cuts global emissions
Lilleholt believes that we must expect both a higher price and far more variation in the price, if enough is not done to improve the Norwegian power balance.
Simply explained, this is the ability to have control over how much electricity will come from the adjustable water reservoirs. If we have more power available from other sources, particularly wind, this balance increases, as hydropower production can be retained when it is windy. A weaker power balance therefore means a higher price because less power is produced.
According to both Lilleholt and the Energy Commission, there is only one power source that can remedy the situation within a few years:
– Onshore wind is the only thing that can be expanded quickly enough, says Lilleholt.
Higher and more unstable prices
According to the Energy Commission, existing plans only account for around 3 TWh of the almost 30 TWh needed to break even.
Berit Tennbakk, who has sat on the Energy Commission and is currently a partner in Thema Consulting, is clear about what will be the consequence if the opposition to wind power remains as strong as it is now:
– Prices will go up then. A stronger balance of power results in lower prices, and vice versa.
It is ambitious to manage this in the short term, because there are strong barriers against all forms of power, she admits.
– But we don’t know for sure that consumption will increase as much as we assume, says Tennbakk.
One possible measure is to push forward the timing for parts of the electrification of the Norwegian continental shelf, if the power situation warrants it, suggests Tennbakk.
– Very expensive when it gets cold
According to Lilleholt, there is no alternative to expanding as much as possible.
– Otherwise, the balance will be eaten up by more consumption than production. We will see significant growth in consumption over the next ten years compared to the ten years behind us. With an imbalance in the system, we get greater variety and higher prices. Then it becomes very expensive when it is very cold and the opposite if there is a lot of wind.
That is why it is so important that we have hydropower as a stable source to counteract the imbalance, but neither does hydropower have any very great potential through upgrading existing waterworks, Lilleholt believes:
– In that case, we have to develop protected waterways. Building in parallel in existing water works is very difficult, since it will take a lot of significant production out of the system during the construction period.
– We must at least change the system
Finance Minister and Center Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is often a warm advocate for local self-government. When it comes to wind power, he hopes that a better redistribution of income will get more people moving:
– I think the municipalities are left with too little money now. That is why we have a proposal to change the taxation of wind power out for consultation now, where the municipalities with natural interventions will be left with more money for the local communities.
From 1 January, the government has doubled the production fee – a fee that wind power producers pay to the host municipalities. It was previously 1 øre per kWh produced. Now it is 2 kWh.
This means that this income is doubled for the host municipalities. The government has proposed a new ground rent tax on wind power, but here half of the income will go to the state, and the rest will be distributed between all the municipalities in the country.
Nettavisen has previously explained that some mayors in wind municipalities believe this gives too much to municipalities without wind power. The Energy Commission is proposing a further increase, which the government has not yet decided on.
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– This survey was carried out after you doubled the production tax. Still, they say no.
– Yes, but exactly that system change is out for consultation now and will go to the Storting during the year, so the new system for distributing income from wind power must be implemented during the year. It is because we believe that the large wind power developers should pay more to the local communities. And there is also for wind power that has already been built, not just for new facilities, Vedum replies.
– Aasland’s state secretary Elisabeth Sæther tells Nettavisen that you don’t need a plan B, if plan A doesn’t succeed. Do you agree, and what should be done if no one says yes?
– I believe, when the system is in place, that with significantly higher incomes for the local communities, it will be more attractive to make arrangements. And then wind power developers who have built out have to look at themselves in the mirror. They have not been smart enough to take local considerations into account. They haven’t listened enough to the locals. You have to play as a team with the locals, and then my job as finance minister is to make it more local again.
– But what happens if not enough municipalities say yes?
– Now we must at least change the system. It’s happening now. It is currently under consultation. And then you’ll see. But there is no doubt that it is a major system attack, and that those who arrange it will be left with more.
