According to Ukrainian statistics, as of 9:00 a.m. local time on the 16th, the number of Russian military casualties has increased by 690, and the cumulative number has exceeded 140,000. Another 3,296 tanks and more than 6,517 armored vehicles have been destroyed.
It will be one year since Russia attacked Ukraine, and the two sides are currently fighting fiercely in Donetsk, Donbass, Udon. The Russian army continued to suffer heavy casualties. According to a report by the British military a few days ago, the Russian army has killed an average of 824 people per day in the past week, more than at any time since the first week of the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated in an official Facebook post that from the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022 to 9 am on February 16, 2023, the Russian army has killed about 140,460 people and the number of injured is even larger. The Ukrainian army destroyed 3,296 tanks, 6,517 armored vehicles, 2,306 artillery systems, 466 multiple rocket vehicles, 239 air defense systems, 298 military aircraft, 287 helicopters, 5,167 vehicles and tankers, 18 ships, 2,012 drones, 219 special equipment, and 857 cruise missiles.
The Ministry of Defense said that the surge in Russian casualties was largely due to its long-standing problems: a lack of trained personnel, front-line coordination and resources, among other factors. Russia, on the other hand, is facing a “difficult choice” and must choose between “continuing to deplete its troops, reduce targets, or engage in further forms of mobilization.”
Putin’s big annual speech set to shrink sharply
On February 21, Putin will address the Russian Federation Parliament. The president’s address to the Russian State Duma and Federation Council’s federal session was a major event introduced into the Russian constitution in February 1994, roughly equivalent to the U.S. president’s annual State of the Union address.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on February 15 (Wednesday) that Russian Federation Television will set aside an hour to broadcast Putin’s speech at the Federal Parliament on February 21.
However, according to many analysts, it is clear that Putin is unlikely to announce further measures to escalate the war in Ukraine, a major new mobilization of Russia or any other important policy in his speech.
In 2022, Putin has repeatedly postponed his annual speech to the Federal Parliament. At the time, he hoped to finally use the speech to celebrate Russia’s sweeping victory in Ukraine and package a major achievement. However, the progress of the war exceeded almost everyone’s expectations, and Putin failed to do so.
After a year of war, the situation is even more dire for Kremlin leaders.
Russia’s costly war in Ukraine has greatly depleted Moscow’s stockpile of equipment and manpower needed to sustain its successful massive offensive in eastern Ukraine.
British Defense Secretary Wallace told the BBC that Britain did not see the momentum in Russia to “put together a force to launch a major offensive”, noting that the Russians were now trying to advance in the Donbass “at great cost”.
Wallace estimates that Russia has committed as much as 97 percent of the troops it can muster to the attack on Ukraine, while its overall combat power has dropped by 40 percent, which is “almost at the level of World War I attrition.” However, the progress made by Russia’s human attack is measured in “meters”, which is very small.
The Kremlin’s mechanized combat capability is less than 50%
Wallace also believes that Russia lacks sufficient mechanized combat capabilities to make a breakthrough. The Institute of War Research, a US think tank, also assessed that the Russian conventional army must undergo a major reorganization to regain the ability to conduct effective mobile warfare, because Russia cannot restore scrapped mechanized vehicles in a short period of time.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies report revealed that Russia lost about 50 percent of its T-72B and T-72B3M tanks, as well as many T-80 tanks, forcing the Russian military to rely on older equipment. Wallace noted that two-thirds (2/3) of Russia’s tanks were either destroyed or rendered useless.
The MoD assesses that the Kremlin may recognize Russia’s low industrial output as a “serious weakness” and that Russian production does not meet the Kremlin’s long-term requirements. But to reverse this situation, the Norwegian intelligence service said that Russia still needs to put in a lot of effort to build new production lines, and it will take time to recruit and train workers. These measures are unlikely to improve the Russian defense industry’s ability to rapidly mass-produce tanks, and they certainly will not in time to affect the outcome of the current Russian offensive, or a counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in the coming months.
The War Institute pointed out that the timely delivery of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine by the West will further offset Russia’s ability to conduct mechanized warfare. Ukraine may continue to have the opportunity to mount a massive counteroffensive in the coming months, but its ability to do so depends largely on the speed and scale at which the West can deliver the necessary supplies, especially tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukraine has a “good chance” to gain the initiative on the battlefield
U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin is very optimistic about Kiev’s chances of gaining the initiative and establishing an advantage on the battlefield against Russia.
“I think they (the Ukrainians) have a really good opportunity to make a pretty significant change on the battlefield and establish an initiative that they can leverage in the future,” Austin said after a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on the 15th. right.”
He revealed that the West is “teaching a man how to fish”. As NATO countries deliver ammunition to Ukraine, the NATO military alliance is training Ukrainian troops to use the munitions. “We’re laser-focused to make sure we’re delivering capabilities, not just weapons platforms,” he said.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the need to provide Ukraine with more ammunition to ensure the Ukrainian army’s ability to resist the Russian army. He also stressed the need for allies to fulfill commitments to provide Ukraine with tanks and other heavy equipment.
Senior Kremlin defense official, 58, dies after falling 160ft
A senior Russian defense official was found dead after jumping from a tower window on Monday, the latest in the mysterious death of a top Kremlin official.
Marina Yankina, 58, was spotted by passers-by at the door of a house in St. Petersburg. It is believed she fell to her death from the 16th floor.
Ms Yankina was a key figure in financing Putin’s war in Ukraine, as head of the financial support department of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Western Military District. This department is closely related to the war.
Before joining the Western Military District, Yankina worked for the Russian Federal Tax Service and also served as deputy chairman of the St. Petersburg Property Relations Committee. She is believed to have been at the center of efforts to increase funding for the war that broke out almost a year ago.
Both the Russian Investigative Committee and the press office of the Western Military District “Fontanka” confirmed her death and launched an investigation. Mash on Moika, a police-linked media outlet, said Jankina had called her ex-husband and told him she was planning to take her own life.
The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and dealt Putin with a string of military disasters since the Russian attack. Yankina is the latest in a string of dozens of Russian officials who have died mysteriously. Just last week, Major General Vladimir Makarov, a Russian general recently fired by Putin, was found dead, possibly by suicide.
