2023 18:20, BABKOFOL
Today, after the market closed, Kofola announced the preliminary results of the economy for the year 2022, or 4Q 2022.
| Economic results for 4Q 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mile. K | 4Q 2022 | Market Consensus* | 4Q 2021 |
and/and |
| Revenues | 1810 | 1812 | 1569 | 15,4 % |
| EBITDA | 230 | 209 | 142 | 62,0 % |
*average according to a survey by the Kofola company
In 4Q 2022, Kofola reported year-on-year growth in demand by 15.4% to 1,810 million K. For the entire year, revenues increased by 18.7% to 7,880 million K and fulfilled the management’s vision.
In terms of operating profitability, Kofola exceeded its revised target of 3%, when EBITDA for the year 2022, according to preliminary results, finally reached K 1,110 million (-1.6% y/y). EBITDA equaled both our estimate (K 1,088 million) and the average market estimate (K 1,089 million).
In 4Q 2022 alone, intercompany EBITDA profit increased by 62% to the level of 230 million K, while our prediction fell short with a profit of more than 208 million K. Given that revenues were exactly in line with expectations, Kofola in particular showed significant investment efficiency , we did not expect, or Inflationary pressures on the investment side of the economy (prices of packaging and energy) eased compared to previous quarters, according to assumptions. The hit, not the expected EBITDA profit was mainly attributed to the Fresh&Herbs segment, when Kofola reported a significant improvement in profitability in the UGO division (UGO bars, salts, spirits). We expected an operating profit of K 15 million in the Fresh segment in 4Q 2022. It is possible that in the end it could have been around K 25-30 million (we will not know the specific sales for the individual segments until the final results are announced in April).
Kofola was worth even Kleton’s insight. In 2023, the company expects a 12% growth in needs and an EBITDA between 1100 and 1250 million K. At the level of needs, the first estimate is about 15%. Due to the forecast of operating profitability, Kofola’s management puts it in a wide range. On the lower end, Kofola is more conservative, not assuming 1,150 million K, on the upper end, he is optimistic, not estimating 1,200 million K. To sum up: if we take into account the average value of 1,175 million K (average growth of 6% ), so the EBITDA insight is consistent with the dream.
The indication of the annual dividend was not so surprising. Kofola indicates that this year it will have the ambition to pay out a minimum of K11.3 per share (4.5% dividend yield), which is in line with our predicted range of K11.3-13.5. in the meantime, in addition to dividends (last year, Kofola paid out 11.3 K).
EBITDA for 4Q 2022 reached a solid level and beat the market consensus. Overall, Kofola comfortably met its full-year operating profitability target. Economic insight, including dividends, is in line with the dream forecast. Overall, we rate the daily preliminary results report as neutral and slightly positive.
Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as
