In 2021, cancer cost the life of 2,090 people in the province of Granada, according to data from the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia (IECA), which represents 23% of deaths, only behind those derived from diseases of the circulatory system (2,431, 27%). In third place are infectious and parasitic diseases, which could include Covid-19, which caused the death of 933 Grenadians two years ago. These figures make very clear the incidence that this disease has in Granada society that, like the rest of the country, celebrates the International Childhood Cancer Day on February 15, a situation that will be even more worrying in the future, because according to forecasts of the Observatory of the Spanish Association Against Cancer (AECC) and Esri, the province cancer cases will increase by 31.2% between now and 2040.
This study also offers more up-to-date data than the ACEI, which makes it possible to better outline the progression of the disease. Thus, last year 5,413 cases were diagnosed in Granada, mainly in men (3,162), making the province the fourth in Andalusia with the highest incidence, only behind Cádiz (7,045), Málaga (9,842) and Seville. (10,716).
But the future situation is not too optimistic, since the AECC forecasts indicate that in 2040 7,102 cases of cancer will be diagnosed in Granada, something also foreseeable taking into account the population growth that the province will experience over the years. In 2022, according to data from the Observatory, the incidence was 5,413 cases in the provincewhich means that in two decades the cases will multiply to exceed 31%.
This increase is clearer in the words of María José Sánchez, a scientist at the Andalusian School of Public Health (EASP), who explains that “one in two men and one in three womenresidents in the province of Granada, will develop cancer throughout life” and points out that, despite the growth in cases, “mortality has a downward trend, although cancer continues to be the first cause of death in men and the second in women” and is confident that, by 2030, the Cancer survival is 70%.
At the regional level, the data for Grenada represent a little more than 11% of cases detected throughout Andalusia, with Seville (10,716) being the province with the highest incidence of this disease, followed by Malaga (9,842 cases) and finally Cádiz (7,046).
Within the different types of cancer, the forecasts of the AECC indicate that it will be the colorectal the one that is diagnosed the most in that future within two decades, since 1,055 cases will be detected, when, according to the same sources, 772 were detected in 2022, representing a growth of more than 36%. last year were prostate cancers (only in men) and from mom (in women) those who were most diagnosed in the province, with 675 and 653 cases respectively, a prominent place that they will also maintain in that hypothetical future envisioned by the Spanish Association Against Cancer, since in 2040 972 cases of prostate cancer will be detected (+44%) and 701 breast (+7.3%)
Precisely in what Regarding gender, The AECC report indicates that the incidence is higher in men than in women. In fact, rates of 555 cases per 100,000 inhabitants are estimated for men and 464 for women, a difference that becomes more accentuated from the 50 years.
By types of cancer, among men, ruling out the prostate, the colorectal is the most frequent (15%), followed by the lung (13%), the urinary bladder (9%) and finally the stomach (4%). In the female case, and also eliminating breast cancer, the most frequent cancer is also colorectal (13%), followed by uterus and lung (both with 6%) and finally ovarian (4%).
Although the AECC study does not offer details about this, the EASP professor points out the “socioeconomic inequalities” surrounding the disease, since not all territories and not all people are equally capable of coping with cancer, a situation that Sánchez summarized in that “zip code affects more than genetics“.
temporary evolution
The data from the AECC observatory not only serve to predict how cancer will evolve, but also offer a ‘newspaper library’ of how the growth of cases of this disease has been over the years.
In 2012, the last year offered by the Observatory, the incidence in Granada was 4,662 caseswhich indicates that in a decade this index has risen by 16%, while in the thirty years covered by the AECC report it has been, if the forecasts come true, 52%.
For its part, the incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was 505 people, while last year it was 587 and it is expected that by 2040 it will multiply to reach 767 people.
Although slightly, the province has seen over the last decade how the incidence of cancer has been increasing over the years, so it is understandable that it continues to do so in the future and that the forecasts of the AECC Observatory come true.
In this sense, Sánchez points out that, looking back, the diagnosis and treatment of cancer cases has improved remarkably, although society still has a pending account with its prevention and ensures that more than 40% of cases could be prevented promoting healthier lifestyles. “Primary prevention is the most cost-effective strategy in the long term for cancer,” says the professor.
