delivery time2023-02-12 16:33
Ukraine: “Russia has completed preparations for additional mobilization, but is delaying”
Russian tanks in Ukraine on January 27 [타스=연합뉴스]
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Ji-yeon = With the end of winter, there are many speculations that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine is imminent, and there are also prospects that both militaries will face difficulties in the spring thawing mud.
CNBC reported on the 11th (local time) that the frozen ground in Ukraine is expected to begin to thaw in a few weeks, turning into a mud that will slow the advance of troops and tanks.
The mud in this area has historically been notorious for a long time, to the extent that there are separate words for the time when the ground turns to muddy as the snow melts in early spring or rains in late autumn, ‘Rasputica’ in Russian and ‘Bezdoriza’ in Ukrainian.
It is well known that Napoleon Bonaparte, on his expedition to Russia in 1812, and Adolf Hitler, on his invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 during World War II, suffered considerable difficulties with mud.
Despite his long reputation, there is no sharp trick to avoid the quagmire.
Russian forces have already been taken aback by Ukraine’s mud as they passed through the spring thaw after they invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year. Videos and photos of Russian tanks and armored vehicles sunk in the mud and abandoned have been circulating online.
Mud also afflicts Ukrainian forces. Last fall, Ukrainian forces also suffered from mud as they fought to recapture Russian-occupied territories.
With Russia expected to launch an all-out offensive to take full control of eastern Ukraine, the coming spring will present familiar challenges on both sides, the media noted.
The British Ministry of Defense said in an update on the situation in Ukraine posted on Twitter on the 9th, “The role of the weather in the course of the war in Ukraine is still critical.”
“It is highly likely that the heads of both sides are not planning a major attack at this time,” he added, “but political and operational opportunities could dispel such concerns, as seen by Russia launching an invasion in late February 2022.” .
In the midst of this, Ukraine diagnosed that even after Russia is ready to issue a new mobilization order, it is postponing it due to difficulties in internal integration of existing forces.
In recent weeks, Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian defense lines in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk.
In particular, both countries are suffering massive losses as Russia mobilizes large-scale troops and recruits former convict mercenaries to engage in humanitarian tactics, while Ukraine embarks on a desperate defense.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Ukraine’s Deputy Director of Military Intelligence Vadim Skivitsky said, “Everything is ready” regarding Russia’s mobilization order. said.
Soldiers being mobilized in October last year and undergoing training [타스=연합뉴스 자료사진]
“Our assessment is that Russia is preparing for the second mobilization order, but will put it on hold because it has not been able to overcome the difficulties experienced in the first mobilization order,” he explained. These include a lack of modern equipment and a lack of officers capable of preparing for a large influx of untrained recruits.
Russia added 300,000 troops by issuing a mobilization order at the end of September last year, but it is said that the new recruits were not properly trained and were deployed in poor conditions with insufficient supplies and equipment.
In an update posted on the 11th, the British Ministry of Defense pointed out that “Russian leadership is faced with a difficult choice: continued sharp reduction of troops, reduction of targets, or additional mobilization.”
The UK Ministry of Defense recently announced that the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped recruiting prisoners as part of the reason that the harsh reality in Ukraine was transmitted among prisoners and the number of volunteers decreased, but the direct competition between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner group Expansion appears to be a key factor, he analyzed.
Russian officials have repeatedly denied observations that additional mobilization orders are imminent.
Report via KakaoTalk okjebo
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