Russia would like to drive a wedge into northern Europe / Article

Krishs Kairis: Thank you for finding time for the interview. What is the general opinion of the Finnish public about security at the moment? How has it changed over the last year and with Finland’s efforts to join NATO?

Mikael Vigel: A year ago, it changed radically, completely, almost overnight. I think that Finnish society has changed its mind about joining NATO. Finland has been militarily neutral, but that changed a lot when Russia started its aggression in Ukraine. The majority of society very soon – even faster than the Finnish political leadership – came to the opinion that Finland should join NATO.

Support for this is extremely high – around 75-80%. There is a very broad consensus on security policy in Finland. If a year ago there were great concerns about the general security situation, including about Finland itself, then they are no longer so great. We see that Russia is heavily involved in the war in Ukraine and there are not many Russian forces left behind our borders in the north, so we are not currently concerned about a military threat to Finland.

Realizing this, we naturally worry more about hybrid threats – cyber attacks, disinformation operations, sabotage and the like. But, I think Finland is very well prepared for this kind of threat. We have maintained a very high level of preparedness here for years, dating back to the Cold War.

Finland has always maintained a very high level of both military and civilian preparedness.

Could Finland join NATO as early as this summer at the NATO summit in Vilnius and do so without its partner Sweden?

I think that the absolute first option is for Finland and Sweden to stand together. And I think our political leadership in Finland has been adamant that they want to join at the same time as Sweden.

It makes strategic sense for Finland and Sweden to join together. I think it is also the hope of the NATO organization that Finland and Sweden will join together. This would help in military, defense planning and the like.

But of course, in the end, if Turkey completely blocks Sweden’s accession, then Finland may have to rethink the situation. At least think how long Finland will wait for Sweden.

But that’s not an option that’s under serious consideration right now. The idea now is that Finland and Sweden have to go together, and maybe after the elections in Turkey it will become a little easier to move forward.

Turkey’s changing opinion – maybe let Finland join NATO right now, but not Sweden, – is it like a game?

It seems to me that there is a possibility that Turkey wants to “drive a wedge” between Finland and Sweden. Some claims look like it. But we are not entirely sure whether this is a Turkish tactic or not. Hard to say. Anyway, from a Swedish and Finnish perspective, I think it’s important to stick together. And if there are such intentions to drive a wedge between us, we shouldn’t let that happen.

As an analyst, maybe you can comment – how does Russia view this process?

From Russia’s perspective, the gap between Finland and Sweden is of course a kind of birthday present or something. Russia would like such a strategic “wedge to be driven into Europe and the North”.

Of course, from the perspective of the Russian military, it would not look good if both Finland and Sweden joined NATO. From their perspective, it would be much more pleasant if one of the countries could not join, and this would probably encourage much more pressure.

If Sweden did not join, it would probably put more pressure on Sweden and make it harder for NATO to plan in the region.

The accession of both Sweden and Finland helps with much of the defense planning and defense exercises as well as information sharing in the Northern Space. And that, of course, is something that Russia would like to avoid.

So in that sense, Turkey is very much playing on it, or perhaps playing to Russia’s interests, be it consciously or unconsciously. It’s hard to say.

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