8. feb. 2023 21:43 – Updated 8 Feb. 2023 22:27
The US president is doing poorly in opinion polls, but is by no means a beaten man. Although it is uncertain whether he will run for re-election in 2024, it is far too early to write off the 80-year-old from Pennsylvania.
– It is meaningless to say that Biden is finished. Those who say that don’t know what they’re talking about. He is a sitting president, and sitting presidents are usually re-elected, in the absence of extraordinary crises, let’s say in 2020.
This is what Hilmar Mjelde, associate professor of political science at the University of Western Norway, tells ABC Nyheter.
In contrast to others who leave Biden little chance of a new presidential term, Mjelde believes that Biden seems potent and capable of wanting to stand for election in 2024.
– He seems to be running for re-election. Both with its “much remains” message and its rather energetic appearance. The White House understands that they have to convince that Biden has the health and energy for a new term, and the speech was intended to do that, Mjelde believes.
– The political situation is rather deadlocked
US President Joe Biden speaks with Representative Debbie Dingell (D-MI) after the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on February 7, 2023 in the House Chamber of the US Capitol in Washington DC.
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During his annual address to the nation, Biden urged Republicans to work together and help rebuild the economy after several difficult years.
– The people have sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for power’s sake, conflict for conflict’s sake, gets us nowhere. That has always been my vision for the country: To restore the soul of the nation, to rebuild the backbone of America, the middle class, to unite the country, Biden said.
Mjelde believes that Biden’s speech to Congress is unlikely to change anything, and that the strong polarization in American society will probably continue.
– It’s not like the public’s opinion swings from side to side depending on what happens in the news. The political situation is fairly deadlocked, and presidents today can only hope for support from half the country, Mjelde points out.
– Biden calls for cross-party cooperation, will he succeed in that, or are the fronts too steep?
– No. In a two-party system, such as the American one, the opposition is focused on stalling the president, not giving him new political victories. Especially not before an election, replies Mjelde.
– There will be some theatrical drama ahead
– How will Biden’s proposal on taxation of billionaires and tax on buybacks of shares play out in the electorate, is it a winning case?
– A tax increase is never a winning case in the United States. But this was not a real bill. Biden just wanted to make a political point. He knows that this type of tax increase does not have a snowball’s chance of a certain hot spot in today’s Congress. Many legislative proposals are in reality only intended as communication devices.
The USA’s debt is sky high, and there is talk that the country’s economy could collapse if the debt ceiling does not continue to be raised. Mjelde believes there is no way around it.
– The debt ceiling will be raised, I am 95 per cent sure of that. But there will be some theatrical drama ahead, but the consequences are potentially too great not to do so. The congressional leaders, together with Biden, will bring this to fruition, one way or another, believes the US expert.
– The Republicans plan to grill the Biden administration
President Joe Biden addressed the nation in front of Congress on Wednesday night. Behind him are Vice President Kamala Harris and Congress leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin / AP / NTB
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– How would you assess the balance of power between the GOP and the Democrats now, will Biden become more paralyzed, or will the GOP set more of an agenda and set guidelines on politics?
– In the absence of a majority behind him, no president gets much done. Biden can issue directives and thus get a lot done, but they are necessarily smaller in scope than new reforms adopted by Congress. The Republicans plan to grill the Biden administration in future congressional hearings, Mjelde expects.
He points out that the opposition in Congress is mostly focused on supervision and hearings.
– That is Congress’s second main task, and what is the focus when there is no congressional majority to make new laws, explains Mjelde.