Unusual spread of ‘post-Putin’ coverage
With the Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine protracted, the Russian media at the beginning of the year published a series of prospective articles on the March 2024 presidential election. The theory of President Putin’s illness was made public, his successor candidate was introduced, and the name of an unexpected person was also mentioned.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 1, 2023, at the official residence of the Novo-Ogaryovo region in the suburbs of Moscow, Russia)
Mark Galeotti, a British Russia expert, said, “Putin’s shelf life has expired. Many people are fed up with the status quo, and there are strong calls for a successor.”Opinion polls show Putin’s approval rating remains highwar wearinessIt seems that the mood is spreading.
The invasion of Ukraine is “Putin’s war,” and if Mr. Putin leaves office, the war will end. In Russia, where the media is tightly controlled, it is unusual for reports that refer to “post-Putin” to spread. There is a possibility that it will be regulated eventually, but at this point, we are looking at the leading candidates for the presidential election.
Opposition parties, journalists, judo players, businessmen…
The leading Russian newspaper “Kommersant” (January 13) reported that the Kremlin has begun preparations for the presidential election for Mr. Putin’s fifth term. The next presidential election will be announced in December this year and is expected to be voted on March 17, 2024. Mr. Putin can continue to serve for 12 years for two new terms.
Mr Putin himself did not say whether he would run for president at a meeting last November, saying, “I have the constitutional right to run again.”
That said, the 5th runner-up will be the default route. Putin’s decision not to run would quickly make him a lame duck, making it difficult to lead the war in Ukraine. If the successor government ends the war, it could be held accountable for its hardships and war crimes. A constitutional provision exempts a former president from prosecution as a senator for life, but this kind of provision makes no sense. Mr. Putin will only aim to prolong the war and prolong the life of the regime.
Nonetheless, since the beginning of the new year, the Russian media has been buzzing with the topic of succession issues.
According to the government-affiliated newspaper Izvestia (January 23), the 2018 presidential election candidate from the Communist Party of the opposition party was runner-up Pavel Gruzhinin, a farmer, and a member of the Pskov City Council who is a high-ranking member of the opposition Fair Russia Party. Nikolai Rybakov, a leader of the reformist political party Yabloko, Ksenia Sobchak, a female reformist journalist who ran for president in 2018, and Dmitry Nosov, a pro-Japan judoka who participated in the Olympics. At least 11 different people, including Mr. and businessman Sergei Polonsky, have announced their candidacy for the presidency early.
