Just a little while and then the nuclear exit will end up with the bulky waste for good. It seems that now that Vivaldi wants to keep the three oldest ones open longer after the two youngest nuclear power plants. Is the green resistance broken?
Fought and won, that is how MR chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez probably thinks about the nuclear exit file. Since the formation of the federal government, he has been protesting – vociferously – against the closure of the Belgian nuclear power plants. In the beginning, mainly with global warming as an argument. Unlike gas-fired power plants, nuclear power plants do not emit CO2 out. Since the war in Ukraine, he has emphasized the power supply of families in times of fear.
“The government finally wants to extend five nuclear reactors. After the two reactors we decided on at the beginning of this year, three more will be added. There is an obligation of result to guarantee security of supply,” Bouchez exults on Friday, immediately after it has become clear that the government is investigating the possibility of keeping Doel 1, Doel 2 and Tihange 1 open until 2027. The three oldest nuclear power stations must serve as a supply insurance.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and major energy problems in France and Germany threaten power shortages in the winters 2025-2026 and 2026-2027, according to grid operator Elia. In the best case scenario, Doel 4 and Tihange 3 will come to the rescue from the end of 2026. For the two youngest nuclear power plants, the government has been in talks with Engie for some time about extending the lifespan by ten years. A partial agreement was concluded immediately after the turn of the year. Everything should be completed in March 2024.
This timing seems no coincidence: elections await a few months later. The theme of energy will play a leading role in the electoral battle. According to a poll by lobby group Nuclear Forum, the theme is ‘determinative’ for the voting behavior of more than a quarter of young people today.
Rue de la Loi is now assuming a nuclear agreement with Engie in the direct run-up to the elections. About Doel 4 and Tihange 3, but in the same breath also about Doel 1, Doel 2 and Tihange 1. It would certainly suit the Flemish centre-right government parties very well. N-VA, the largest opposition party north of the language border, has been campaigning for years against the nuclear exit. Open Vld, cd&v and to a lesser extent Vooruit are accused of blindly following the ‘dogmatic’ greens. If there is a nuclear agreement on the table, N-VA will score much more difficult with this argument.
Events
The turbulent history of the nuclear phase-out shows how unexpected events can very quickly steer politics in a different direction. (Former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s iconic response to his greatest fear in politics: “Events, dear boy, events’.)
It has not been that long since Vivaldi fully supported the timing of the nuclear exit. On December 23, 2021, esp. After a whole night of negotiations about the sensitive file, the coalition finally manages to resolve it. Her decision: the nuclear power plants will close by 2025, as provided for in the purple-green law on nuclear phase-out of 2003. In return, investments will be made in the nuclear technology of the future. The Greens have been campaigning for a closure for some time. They get their shot at home. The French-speaking liberals have to make do with a consolation prize.
Then the unexpected ‘event’ follows: two months later the war starts in Ukraine, Russia gently shuts off the gas tap and panic ensues throughout Europe about the energy supply. In March 2022, the government decides to change course. Talks are being started with Engie about extending the lifespan of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear power plants. However, it soon becomes apparent that this also offers no certainty. The problems in France and Germany are forcing Elia to adjust its supply calculations. With Friday’s decision as a result.
Under a ‘dome’
Above the Wetstraat, the death knells are now ringing for the nuclear phase-out by 2025. “Not much remains of that nuclear phase-out,” responds a leading liberal source. At CD&V, the decision about the oldest nuclear power plants is considered logical. “As it should. Security of supply essential. The future is renewable and nuclear,” party chairman Sammy Mahdi tweeted on Friday.
The sober conclusion: there is a real chance that five of the seven Belgian nuclear power stations will run longer than planned by law. An agreement seems to be in the making for the lifespan extension of Doel 4 and Tihange 3. Without accidents, they will remain open towards 2040. There are a number of obstacles for a temporary restart of Doel 1, Doel 2 and Tihange 3 (nuclear power plants that in 2015 were already kept open for ten years longer than planned in extremis). For example, these power stations, which were built in the 1970s, will require costly works.
If Doel 1, Doel 2 and Tihange 1 can remain open until 2027, this means that the next government may be perfectly able to keep the nuclear power plants running even longer. More and more parties within Vivaldi have been won over to completely let go of the nuclear exit. MR, Open Vld and cd&v, among others, think so. It has been heard in the corridors for some time that energy will become a crucial point of discussion in the formation of the next government, after the elections in the summer of 2024. Then the nuclear exit may be completely buried, it is said.
The nuclear power plants Doel 3 and Tihange 2 have recently been closed. For the time being, no demolition work is being carried out that would make a possible restart impossible in the future. They are under a ‘bell jar’, awaiting the direction that politicians want to take. Understand: it is not even entirely impossible that it will soon be decided to keep all Belgian nuclear power plants open.
Additional gas plant
Open Vld chairman Egbert Lachaert already believes that Tihange 1 should not continue to run for two years, but ten years longer. “The older nuclear power stations can’t last forever, and they will stay that way. But it needs a new trajectory, because the current timings are totally unrealistic. The green parties know that too. They must also provide people with clarity that the lights will effectively remain on after 2025,” Lachaert said on Radio 1 on Saturday. He wants to profile Open Vld as the “most sensible choice” when it comes to climate and energy in the run-up to the elections.
And the greens? Co-chair Jeremie Vaneeckhout emphasizes that “nothing has been definitively decided” about the three oldest nuclear power plants. According to the Greens, a temporary restart is certainly not technically obvious. For such operations, too, safety must always be 110 percent guaranteed. At the same time, the party leadership seems to have been reconciled for some time with the fact that the nuclear exit is going into the fridge. The alternative to a short extension is not attractive. It may then be necessary to build an extra gas-fired power station – a gas-fired power station that will receive subsidies. And it is also interesting for the Greens to close the nuclear dossier (for a while) before the election battle erupts.
Obviously, the Greens will not admit this openly. “For the closure of the older power plants, the data will go into law (on the nuclear trip, ed.) need to be amended, but the law will not be overhauled or fundamentally changed in this legislature,” said Deputy Prime Minister Petra De Sutter on Sunday. The seventh day. Note her last words: in this legislature.
