Compared to the previous edition, the balance sheet values are slightly lower, due to a minimal increase in the share of those who expect interest rates to remain unchanged in the fourth quarter. The forecasts are fully consistent with the global dynamics of reference interest rates and the observed gradual transfer of effects to the domestic market as well.
The return on deposits increased in the third quarter and the upward trend continued at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
The forecasts of financial intermediaries for the dynamics of interest rates on loans remain almost unchanged. The expectations are almost entirely for an increase in the price of the credit resource, and this is most strongly expressed for loans in BGN (over 90% of the respondents predict an increase).
Representatives of investment intermediaries are the most moderate, with a third expecting the current interest rates to remain unchanged, while all commercial banks, pension insurance and management companies expect an increase. The dynamics in the third quarter fully met the expectations of an increase from the previous edition of the survey. In October, the cost of the credit resource continued to rise in some of the market segments and generally remained at higher levels compared to the average of the previous quarter, commented the Ministry of Finance.
Pollsters expect the pace of economic growth to slow in the fourth quarter. Again, the most pessimistic are the investment intermediaries, while among the management and pension companies they even have expectations of growth acceleration.
A bank in our country raised interest rates on deposits
The result corresponds to the latest data from the NSI’s business observations. In October, the business climate in retail trade, services and industry worsened. Average industrial capacity utilization declined from July, and export expectations were less favorable than three months earlier.
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Respondents almost unanimously expect an upward trend in the main interest rate (BIR). Forecasts reflect a more serious tightening of monetary policy in both the US and the Eurozone in the third quarter, and the gradual spillover of the effects to other markets as well.
In recent weeks, the aggressive tone regarding an increase in the main interest rate in the US has been reduced, while in the eurozone, on the contrary, it has been confirmed. The average interest rate of interbank transactions in the country rose significantly in the July-September period, reaching positive values at the end of the quarter for the first time in almost seven years
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