Almost a year after the invasion, which was supposed to last weeks, the Russian president Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin – Russian politician. Born on October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Through is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine while preparing his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years, according to a new Bloomberg analysis.
According to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation, the Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its supporters to agree to some kind of truce that to let Russia control the territory it now occupies.
Even Putin cannot deny the weaknesses of the army he spent decades building after his troops lost more than half of their initial conquests in Ukraine. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.
But Putin remains confident that Russia’s greater power and its willingness to accept casualties – already in the tens of thousands, more than in any conflict since World War II, according to US and European estimates – will allow it to prevailed despite the setbacks so far.
The renewal of the offensive could begin as early as February or March, say people close to the Kremlin. Their comments confirm warnings by Ukraine and its allies that a new Russian offensive is imminent and suggest it could begin before Kyiv receives newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks.
Putin’s determination heralds another deadly escalation of his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to push his forces out, rejecting any ceasefire that would let Russia occupy its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in what he sees as an existential conflict with the US and its allies. According to insiders, a new round of mobilization is possible as early as this spring, as the economy and society increasingly submit to the needs of the war.
“Putin is disappointed with the way things are going, but he is not ready to give up on his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consulting company. “It just means the road will be longer, bloodier and worse for everyone.”
U.S. and European intelligence officials doubt whether Russia has the resources for another large-scale offensive, even after it mobilized 300,000 additional troops last fall. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies are ramping up arms shipments, preparing for the first delivery of armored vehicles and main battle tanks that could help Ukrainian troops break through Russian lines.
But U.S. officials say Russia’s brutal and relentless attacks in places like Bakhmut, an eastern city of limited strategic value, are draining Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and reducing Kyiv’s ability to conduct offensive operations elsewhere.
After blitzkrieg attacks by Ukrainian forces broke through its defense lines over the summer and fall, Russia has beefed up defenses, using trenches, tank traps and mines to delay a potential advance. The Kremlin has publicly stated that there are currently no plans for a larger mobilization.
In the longer term, Putin has approved plans to expand the ranks of the army by nearly 50 percent over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland – which is in the process of joining NATO – and in occupied regions of Ukraine. Military training courses, widely held during the Soviet era, are being reinstated in schools and universities, with preparations for war increasingly permeating society.
Still, some elements of realism about the army’s disastrous performance so far are beginning to creep into the tightly controlled state media.
“So far the results have been appalling because Russia was not ready at all,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin. “It has become a protracted war, and Russia still does not have enough manpower or equipment to fight it,” he said.
“We must stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and thwart the West’s efforts to defeat us by gaining a military advantage.”
Russian forces have shown no ability to do this since the first weeks of the invasion, retaking only one small town in the last six months, and at a huge cost in casualties. In contrast, Ukrainian troops have consistently surprised allies and observers with successes in repelling invaders.
Putin’s confidence in his military’s ability to triumph — even at the cost of massive casualties and destruction — reflects a misunderstanding of the West’s commitment to retaliate against his aggression, some insiders admit. The U.S. and its allies have steadily increased the supply of weapons to categories once considered out of reach.
However, US and European military officials fear the conflict could soon devolve into a World War I-era artillery battle in which the front line is largely at a standstill – a scenario that could prove favorable to Russia with its larger population and military industry.
Diplomatically, Russia is trying to win supporters among non-Western countries with calls for negotiated ceasefires. Even people close to the Kremlin admit they are now hopeless, given Ukraine’s demand that Russia withdraw its troops as a condition of any deal.
The minimum the Kremlin would accept is a temporary truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory its forces currently hold to buy time to rebuild its forces. While falling short of the borders of the regions Putin illegally annexed in September, it would still leave Russia with a large swath of territory connecting the areas it occupied before the war. As a result, the idea does not sit well with Kyiv and its allies.
“If something doesn’t change, we are facing a war of attrition like the First World War, which could last a long time because both sides believe that time is on their side,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Council on International Affairs. of Russia.”Putin is sure that either the West or Ukraine will get tired.”
A 2024 re-election defeat for US President Joe Biden, who has led a pro-Ukraine coalition, could lead to “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said.
Although the new wave of sanctions – in particular the imposed price cap on Russian oil exports – has squeezed the Kremlin’s revenues, it has so far not reduced Putin’s ability to finance the war. According to economists, Russia still has access to billions of yuan in reserves that are not affected by the sanctions and could help bridge the budget deficit for a period of 2-3 years.
Concerns are also growing among Ukraine’s allies that the conflict will drag on for years.
“It’s going to be very, very difficult this year for Ukraine to throw out Russian forces from anywhere – every inch of the country,” US Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley said on January 20 after a meeting of US and allied defense ministers. “But I think that ultimately this war, like many wars in the past, will end at the negotiating table.”
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