The current domestic unemployment rate is about 3.6%, which is quite stable. As the global economy slows, will there be shocks to the flat unemployment rate? Wang Jianjian, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Economics, said that stock prices are leading indicators, while exports are simultaneous indicators. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Now that unpaid leave is slowly emerging, “the worst is yet to come.” Layoffs and salary cuts are expected. The unemployment rate this year will be higher than last year.
Zhang Jianyi, Director of Taiwan Economics, said that due to the decline in exports, the unemployment rate and unpaid leave may rise in the short term; on the contrary, due to the recovery of consumption momentum in domestic demand industries, the demand for labor will increase a lot; but domestic demand industries, including catering and retail industries The salary level is generally lower than that of the export industry, and the unemployment rate may rise and the average salary may drop in a short period of time.
Ye Yinhua, chairman of Yuanta Baohua, said that the economic growth rate this year is generally believed to be a little worse than last year, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. 4% or less.
Although the economy is freezing this year, Jian Jinhan, a researcher at the Academia Sinica, believes that Taiwan’s economic growth rate is still at 2, and the unemployment situation this year will not be too bad. Especially in the post-epidemic era, the government will distribute cash again. With the support of domestic demand, the job market will show “” Steady and strong”.
According to Kan Jin-han’s analysis, in the service industry, the growth of domestic demand will drive some employment opportunities; the slowdown in the manufacturing industry will affect the demand for manpower. Under the balance of positive and negative factors, it is speculated that the unemployment rate will be roughly flat this year.
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