Posted Jan 16, 2023, 7:16 PMUpdated on Jan 16, 2023 at 7:25 PM
After showing overwhelming optimism last year, business leaders have gone to the opposite extreme. Nearly 80% of global CEOs expect global economic growth to decline over the coming year, according to the 26e edition of the “Global CEO Survey” by PwC, carried out among more than 4,400 managers from 105 countries and published on the occasion of the Davos forum.
The yo-yo is striking, whereas, at the start of 2022, 77% of bosses anticipated an improvement in growth during the year. We were then in the midst of a tidal wave of Covid-19 infections due to the spread of the Omicron variant, but the planet finally seemed to have learned to live with the virus. The CEOs surveyed were most concerned about cybersecurity, then health risks, and only then macroeconomic volatility and the climate emergency.
Things have changed a lot. The war has returned to Europe, prices have soared… The majority of the leaders of the major economies mentioned are now anticipating a drop in global growth. Inflation jumped to the forefront of concerns, ahead of the macroeconomic situation and geopolitical conflicts. A pessimism that echoes that communicated in recent months by the IMF and the World Bank in particular, which are still counting on weak growth this year, but say they fear a recession in the event of a new shock.
The Chinese exception
One exception, however: Chinese bosses are only 45% to be pessimistic for the global economy, and only 18% for their country. But the survey was carried out in October and November, before China made a 180 degree turn on its health policy, plunging its economy into a situation of great uncertainty.
As for the French, they are not the most pessimistic but, like the Germans and the British, they have the particularity of being less confident for the economy of their own country than for the rest of the world. Probably because of the repercussions of the war in Ukraine at the gates of Europe.
More confident in the medium term
Despite this difficult environment, the leaders surveyed show themselves to be rather confident for the future of their company, especially when they are surveyed over a three-year horizon. Only a minority of them have decided to reduce their workforce or investments, or plan to do so. “There is a real duality between the marked pessimism in the short term – and it is true that we are facing a wall of uncertainty in 2023 – and the confidence that then rises, underlines Patrice Morot, president of PwC France and Maghreb. . We see that leaders have acquired a spirit of resilience with the health crisis, they have learned to have confidence in their company’s ability to get through such a crisis. »
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The role of the boss is changed, he continues. “Leaders become managers of a multitude of crises – Covid, talent, energy… – and at the same time, they must be permanent transformers of their company to adapt to the climate, energy and digital transition. . » Vital changes: the majority of bosses believe that their company will have to evolve to be viable within a decade.
