When we now write 2023, Vladimir Putin has been president of Russia for 23 years. He is more lonely than ever, and after just over 300 days of war, he seems determined to continue his attempt to build an empire.
Putin’s successor
Russia’s future relationship with the West will be determined by Vladimir Putin’s successor.
– I am guessing some kind of coup and then it is important that Putin is not succeeded by a madman like Prigozhin, says Jan Hallenberg, head of research at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Affairs.
“PUTIN’S COOK”: Yevgeny Prigozhin has over the years built up close ties to President Vladimir Putin. Recently, he has also constantly appeared in public, and there is speculation as to whether he can take over power in the Kremlin. Photo: Alexey DRUZHININ / SPUTNIK / AFP / NTB
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Speculation about what happens when Vladimir Putin is forced out of the Kremlin has swirled since the February 24 invasion. Among those singled out as possible successors are “Putin’s chef”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev.
A number of candidates
The list of potential successors also includes Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, former President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin’s Deputy Head of State Sergei Kiriyenko.
Dagbladet asked the experts: What do you think the process will look like on the day Vladimir Putin’s successor is chosen – and what will be most important for the West when that happens?
– I have little faith that there will be a democratic election. A possible change of leadership will probably be decided within the security apparatus and the defence, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general and former chief of the Defense Staff.
FRIENDS: President Vladimir Putin in conversation with the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin. He is mentioned as a possible successor as president of Russia. Photo: REUTERS/NTB.
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He emphasizes that there are no serious observers who believe that it is an imminent event, and it is not documented that Putin is ill or will give up power anytime soon.
– The fact that no one in the apparatus around the Kremlin dares to point to his successor tells us that we are nowhere near such a situation yet, says Dalhaug.
Difficult seizure of power in the Kremlin
Geir Flikke, professor and Russia expert at the University of Oslo (UiO) does not want to point to any individuals who are ready to take over power in the Kremlin.
– It is difficult to say, and almost impossible to predict. Being an heir in the situation Russia is in now is not very attractive. Not for anyone but ultra-nationalists. Such people, on the other hand, are hardly consensus figures, says Flikke to Dagbladet.
If the war in Ukraine were to go even worse for Putin, and he gets stronger opposition to the war at home, it will be difficult to appoint his successor.
Excludes democratic elections in Russia
– In the Soviet era, there was a political bureau where you could choose a leader who had the party book in order and went through the ranks over time, but such an institution does not exist today. There are no procedures for a descendant, and a regulated democratic election is completely out of the question, says Arne Bård Dalhaug.
Geir Flikke points out that, in such political systems, the most important reshuffles are usually carried out in advance, in order to secure a broad foothold in the elite.
– This time it may be different, for several reasons. The most important is that Putin himself has been painted into a corner, and that Russia’s position in the Western world is at an all-time low. It may seem as if Duma chairman Volodin made a fateful prophecy in 2014, when he claimed that “Putin – that’s Russia”, says Geir Flikke.
ASSUMING POWER: Former president Dmitry Medvedev (tv) and Sergei Sobyanin are highlighted as two candidates to take over power in the Kremlin. Here they are with Vladimir Putin and Medvedev’s wife Svetalana in 2019. Photo: REUTERS/NTB.
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While Jan Hallenberg, head of research at the Institute of Foreign Policy, believes that Vladimir Putin will be deposed in “some form of coup”, Dalhaug does not think this is the most likely hypothesis.
I don’t think Putin will be killed
– There is no tradition of taking the life of a sitting leader in Russia or of taking power through a military coup. It depends on how Putin steps down from power, but I think it is most likely that his successor will come from the security apparatus that surrounds him today, says Dalhaug.
Bildt: The West must be ready
Former foreign minister in Sweden, Carl Bildt, does not want to speculate on what the process will look like, but he says to Expressen:
– Of course, the West must be ready for contacts with a genuinely new Russian leadership if they were to get one.
Arne Bård Dalhaug points out that Russia’s most famous (imprisoned) opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, believes that the only thing that will stop Russia ceasing to be a threat to neighboring countries and Europe is for them to become a parliamentary democracy.
– I don’t think it’s very likely right now, and such a change doesn’t happen overnight anyway. The most probable is probably that. someone from Putin’s circle takes over, and then I am unfortunately pessimistic about peace negotiations, says Dalhaug.
– Relations with the West are at a low level. It seems that only a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine can change this. But the relationship will remain strained anyway, says Geir Flikke at UiO.
