Yellow feathered chickens crashed and prices of infected “peak period” chickens fell below the “poultry” cost line when will the situation improve? |Industry news
January 7 Financial Associated Press news (Reporters Wang Pingan and Liu Jian)Since October last year, the price of yellow feather chickens has continued to decline, until now the average selling price of yellow feather chickens has fallen below the cost line, and the farm has suffered losses. The winter solstice and New Year’s Day, which is supposed to be the peak season for consumption, have not effectively fixed the price of yellow-feathered fowl.
Reporters from the Financial Associated Press learned from numerous interviews that the price of yellow feathered chickens has been decreasing month after month mainly due to weak consumption, and the market is pessimistic about the market prospects. In the short term, increased consumption during the Spring Festival could give some boost to chicken prices. In the long term, there may still be room for growth in March this year, but it will be more difficult to reach the overall peak in 2023 surpass last year.
Chicken prices fell month after month, and farmers’ profits fell. According to Xinmu.com data monitoring, as of January 6, the national average price of medium speed chicken was 6.01 yuan/catties, fast chicken was 5.54 yuan/catties, and native chicken was 7.28 yuan/catties. Compared to the high point of 9.42 yuan/catties in 2022, it fell by nearly 4 yuan/catties, which fell below the cost line, and the profit of livestock farming was significantly reduced.
(Chicken price trend graph image source: Xinmu.com) Why has the price of yellow feathered chickens been declining month after month and even plummeting? “Since the end of November last year, the infection of the new crown epidemic has become more severe, resulting in weak consumption in the yellow feather chicken market, so the price of yellow feather chickens has decreased across the board, and the profit of the herd has gradually declined has shrunk, resulting in losses; secondly, the whole market is not optimistic about the market prospects, and there has been an early market. The situation of slaughtering and selling products has made repeatedly drop the price of yellow feather chickens, falling to “A low; at the same time, November-December is the traditional low season. This has caused prices to drop.”
Chen Chunyan, owner of Sichuan Boda Yellow Feather Chicken Farm, also confirmed this view in an interview with reporters: “Due to the peak infection period in the past month, the flow of people in the market is relatively small, and the restaurant business is relatively ordinary, which has formed a certain price pressure. ; On the other hand, our slaughter rate is also accelerating, after all, the consumption of yellow feather chickens will be in a vacuum and a weak period in the short term after the Spring Festival.
The continuous month-to-month decline in the price of yellow feathers has led to a continuous decline in the farm’s profits. According to the public data of several listed companies, the cost of yellow feather chicken farming is generally about 6.9 yuan per catty. Compared with the current market selling price of yellow feather chickens, most of the farmers she has entered a state of loss. “According to the current situation, it is actually below the cost line, and the cost of feed materials this year is more than 1 yuan/catties higher than in previous years, which makes breeding much more difficult.” listed yellow feather chicken breeding company told reporters.
It is worth mentioning that “Mao” Wen Chicken (300498.SZ) shares announced the December sales briefing yesterday. In December 2022, the company sold 98.1824 million broilers (including chickens, fresh and cooked food), with a turnover of 2.761 billion The average selling price of RMB and feather broilers was 13.38 yuan/kg, and the monthly changes were respectively +3.18%, -11.19 % and -15.42%, and these are also the three consecutive months of decline in the average selling price of Wen’s broiler chickens.
In this regard, a relevant person from Wen’s (300498.SZ) said, “Our sales generally follow the market, and the price of yellow feathered chickens has been decreasing month after month. At present, it is mainly due to factors on the consumer side.” .”
When will consumption recover during the Spring Festival peak season to support chicken prices? Looking ahead, the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer. Can the price of yellow-feathered chicken, which is a must-have on the New Year’s table, rise under the support of this?
According to Cheng Jing, even though the current peak infection period has passed, the consumption of yellow chickens is still weak. The supply of live poultry in the southern market is not very good. Most of the yellow chickens which have about 75-90 days are sold to group meals and small businesses It is difficult to have group meals in restaurants, and there are many small and medium-sized restaurants closed. Most consumers are still not driven by consumption, and chicken sales are difficult.
Cheng Jing further added, “However, as the Spring Festival approaches, with the increase in stocks on the market, the price of Ma chicken may have some momentum. The price of yellow chicken has an upward trend, but the overall driving force is still limited”.
A person connected to Wen’s actions told the reporter, “This is more difficult to judge. When chicken prices were at their peak three months ago, no one could have imagined it would drop to what it is now.”
It should be noted that although the Spring Festival may give some impetus to the consumption of yellow feather chickens, due to the losses at the end of breeding and the approach of the Spring Festival, the speed of slaughter at the end of breeding has increased, the which could also suppress the price of yellow-feathered chickens to some extent. “It is still necessary to prevent large numbers of chickens from being sold earlier in the year. It may be quite difficult to raise the price of chickens, but there may be a wave of increases in March.” Wang Qidong, expert of Sichuan yellow feathered chicken breeding, said.
Cheng Jing is of the same opinion on this: “In the short term, yellow chickens will perform well during the Spring Festival, and there is room for chicken prices to rise. However, due to the sufficient supply of chickens yellow, the overall increase is estimated to be small.It is expected that in March next year there may still be room to increase, but it will be more difficult for next year’s overall high point to surpass this year’s high point.
It is worth mentioning that due to the decline in feed materials such as soybean meal, feed companies in many places recently announced the first wave of price cuts for New Year’s chicken feed, which could restore the profits of yellow feather chickens that have fallen below the cost line.
In this regard, a relevant person of Wen’s stock said, “It is impossible to lose money for a long time in the industry. When the price of chickens falls and someone quits, the entire supply decreases, and the price will naturally rise. In fact, everyone in the industry is struggling for cost control skills so the main one is better to control the cost of farming and when the price goes up the profit will naturally recover and we also have an advantage as we have more funds.”
(Editor Liu Yan)
