Mr. Naris Satapholdecha ChiefTTB Economic Analysis Centre (ttbanalytics) TMB Thanachart Bank Public Company Limited or TTB has revealed that during the first 5 days of this year (January 1-5), the baht has appreciated quite quickly, reaching 2.1%, the appreciation being n . of currencies in Asia and ranked second in the world due to the ever-recovering trend of Thai tourism. Therefore, it is more attractive than other countries which continuously attract foreign investment to Thailand. Most of them come to speculate on short term debt instruments.
by value directionbahtThereafter, it is expected in the near term until a new Fed rate hike comes together at the end of January. The baht has a chance to strengthen slightly to 33.50 baht to the dollar. But if it appreciates quickly and falls below that level, it is believed that the BOT should take care to reduce the volatility of the baht. to prevent the baht from appreciating too much against other currencies in the region Therefore, it is considered unlikely that the baht will appreciate below the level of 33 baht per dollar.
howeverbahtThis year there is still the possibility of weakening again. from the risk factor of slowing the global economy by decreasing the purchasing power of foreign tourists and affecting Thai tourism And after the Fed raises interest rates, we need to monitor how much foreign investment will bounce back. evaluating the frameworkbahtThis year at 34-35 baht per dollar.
“It is suggested that importers can use this pace. It is an opportunity to partially mitigate the exchange rate risk. Do it gradually in stages. because the direction of the baht in the future is still volatile
Ms. Roong Sanguanruang Senior Vice President Global Market Planning Division, BankKrungsriAyutthaya (BAY) said during the first week of this year. Bank of Thailand (BOT) should take care of thatbahtreduce volatility to prevent the baht from appreciating too much against other currencies in the region The baht has rapidly strengthened since yesterday, reaching 33.75 baht to the dollar. It is number one in Asia excluding Japan.
However, from the foreign capital flows that remained in the Thai bond market, in the past 3 working days (December 30, 2022 – January 4, 2023), foreign investors have net purchases in the bond market, totaling 42,000 million baht, the largest part of which comes in to stay in short-term bonds, averaging 10,000 million baht per day and often having a quick nature. You also have to be careful when foreigners withdraw their money, causing the baht to weaken.
There is also a downside risk to Thailand’s export opening up. amid a downturn in the traditional economy after last year’s aggressive monetary policy The valuation of the baht this year is 32-36 baht per dollar. or the average closes at the end of 2023 at 33.25 baht per dollar
Mr. Kobsith Sinlapachai, Head of Economic and Capital Market Research, Bank of ThailandKasikorn Thai (KBBANK) said What you need to be careful of is that the baht could appreciate quickly. because incoming liquidity is less make money more volatile The baht has appreciated rapidly Also, people think that the Fed’s interest rate hikes as steep as they have been in the past are less necessary. because it could be a catalyst for a recession Therefore, the baht will continue to appreciate in the first quarter of this year. from the return of tourism, but the second quarter will see depreciation from the dividend payment and take the investor’s money
Mr Wachirawat Banchuen, Senior Economist, Economic Intelligence Center (EIC extension) Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited said that the baht should continue to appreciate in the near term. and has the opportunity to reach the level of 33.50 baht per dollar during this 1 month of capital inflow into Thailand Annual average It should be at 33-34 baht per dollar.
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market BankKrung Thai he said that during the volatile period, the baht appreciated more than other currencies in the region.Bank of Thailand has tried to reduce the volatility of the baht continuously as in the past
Because in the short term there is still a possibility that the baht will rise to test the 33.50 baht per dollar level. by the hope of the return of Chinese tourists and by the flow of profitable gold transactions. While the direction of the dollar is not yet a key factor supporting the appreciation.
But also be aware of the volatility and coastal pressure.depreciation baht If the dollar appreciates again together with the timing of the decline in gold prices This may occur if US economic data comes out better than expected Making the market concerned about the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Also, the concern situation of the COVID-19 epidemic in China could also put pressure on Asian currencies again.
Therefore, in the short term, looking at the baht picture, the support line is 33.50 baht per dollar and the resistance line is 34.00-34.25 baht. Entrepreneurs are recommended to make full use of various hedging instruments currency, such as options, between the condition that the currency market is still volatile high volatility
Mr. Kornphat Worachet Director of Research and Investment Services Capital Nomura Securities (Public Company Limited) said the shares would directly benefit from the direction of the appreciation of the baht. It is a stock with a large amount of foreign currency debt. Divided into 4 groups: 1. Airlines stocks Because it is a group of stocks with high foreign currency leverage. which the research department Used to make an assessment that every 5% the baht appreciates causing the shares of the airline group to have an increase of about 40-50%, which recommends Plc. Asian Air Force (AAV)
2. Power Plant Stocks This is another group with high foreign currency debt. As power plant entrepreneurs have significantly expanded their overseas investments in the past, therefore, the stock has recommended and benefited positively from the appreciation of the baht, Plc. Global Power Synergy (GPSC), Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)
3. Industrial Zone Group This is a group with high foreign currency debt. We recommend WHA Corporation Public Company Limited (WHA), Amata Corporation Public Company Limited (AMATA) and 4. Imported Goods Group. Recommended Eligible Stocks: TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited (TOA), Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (ICHI), Sabina Public Company Limited (SABINA), U Bill Public Company Limited.Li Enterprises (JUBILE), Jay Mart Public Company Limited (JMART), Com7 Public Company Limited (COM7)
