Over and under? Complaint?… ‘Stop Loss of Tears’ Will this year be different?[2023 증시전망 上] By Hankyung

KRX Korea Exchange Promotion Center in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo = Yonhap News After Lim’s particularly difficult year, Gye-myo’s year began. Last year, the domestic stock market slid properly due to a sharp rise in interest rates. The previous year, the KOSPI returned to the pre-Corona 19 level as the record for the first time in history, “Three thousand blood (3000 lines)” was pushed to the 2100 line.

The perspective is that this year too will be a difficult year. A hike in interest rates is already an inevitable downside, and the slowdown in corporate exports is also a cause for concern. Several risks still lurk, such as deteriorating liquidity and poor quality real estate. Among these, China’s earlier-than-expected quarantine measures emerged as another variable.

The 1st, 21 domestic securities company research centers (NH Investment Korea Investment Samsung Shinhan Investment Hana Meritz Kiwoom Daeshin Kyobo Hanwha Investment Hyundai Motor KB Ebest Investment SK Eugene Investment IBK Investment Hi Investment, Shinyoung, Daol Investment, Heungkuk Securities, DB Financial Investment), as a result of examining the expected band for KOSPI this year, the lower limit was 1940 points (Daol Investment & Securities), and the limit higher was 2930 points (DB Financial investment).

15 out of 21 suggested the 2600-2700 line as the top end of the KOSPI. It is estimated that most securities companies have made conservative estimates due to economic uncertainty. The 2023 KOSPI estimate is… On the 29th of last month, the last stock market day of 2022, the Hana trading floor Bank “1940 ~ 2930 line” in Myeong-dong, Seoul. Photo = Yonhap News Last year, the stock market collapsed helplessly due to the triple negative factors of high interest rates, high prices and high exchange rates. The KOSPI has fallen 25% since the beginning of the year, registering the biggest drop in 14 years since 2008 (-41%). It is the first time in four years since 2018 that the KOSPI has decreased every year.

The KOSPI, which started at the 2900 line last year, ended at the 2200 line. The stock market’s initial prediction that it would cross the 3,000 mark was dead wrong. The 4th consecutive giant leap by the US Central Bank (Fed) (raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage points at once) that shook the global stock market was bad news that no one could have predicted .

Kim Hak-gyun, head of research at Shinyoung Securities, recently mentioned in a report titled “My Mistake in 2022” that “a crucial misjudgment made last year was to overlook the possibility of sustained monetary tightening from part of the Fed”. The index is down 34% year over year. The total market capitalization of KOSDAQ stocks and markets was 1.767 trillion won, down 20% from the end of last year. The 2022 stock market crashed to 3 highs … The only thing left for the ant “Multan” is loss Last year, individual investors (ants) bought more than 2.5 billion won alone in the domestic stock market (stocks, KOSDAQ) for 246 trading days from January 3, the stock exchange opening date, to December 29, the closing date. On the other hand, foreigners and institutions sold 11 trillion won and 13.58 trillion won respectively. This means that individuals received all foreign and institutional supplies in the bear market.

But all that was left were losses. Among the top 10 individual net purchases (Samsung Electronics, Naver, Kakao, SK Hynix, Doosan Energity, Kakao Bank, EcoPro BM, LG Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SK IE Technology), there are no stocks up since the beginning of the year.

Even half of the 10 titles were “cut in half” last year. Samsung Electronics, the top individual net buyer, lost 29.37%. SK Ie Technology has experienced a whopping 70% loss rate. Photo = Getty Images ‘Sangjeohago’ vs ‘Sanggohajeo’… Mixed Outlook This year, while market activity is expected to be in range box overall this year, most securities firms including Korea Investment & Securities have forecast that the stock market would exhibit an “up and down” trend. This is a scenario under the assumption that “interest rate policy”, the biggest variable in the stock market, will end in Q1. There is also the prospect that if the effect of China’s With Corona policy appears faster, the speed of the index recovery can be accelerated.

Hwang Seung-taek, head of the Hana Securities Research Center, said: “It looks like spending the first half of the year in safety will be key.”

Oh Tae-dong, head of the research center at NH Investment & Securities, said: “As a situation where fears of an economic recession are growing due to sharp interest rate hikes, it is good that demand is improving everywhere.” . impact on the stock market rebound,” she said.

Center manager Oh said, “However, it is not known whether China’s With Corona will proceed at the pace expected by the market. It looks like it will,” he added.

Hwang Ji-yeon, a researcher at Kyobo Securities, advised: “As concerns about a recession will emerge in the medium to long term, we should maintain a cautious outlook and prepare for a period of sharp increases as stocks enter the recovery period as you do a minimum.

Ha Jae-seok, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, predicted, “In the first half of next year, the pace of inflation and sharp tightening will ease and asset prices will likely recover.”

Conversely, there is also the perspective that will show “ups and downs”. Kang Jae-hyun, researcher at SK Securities, said, “After the KOSPI peaked in the first half due to the suspension of interest rate hikes in the US and a decline in market interest rates, will continue to decline due to inflation, debt risks and the collapse of the housing market.(Continued)

Shin Hyun-ah / Cha Eun-ji / Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter

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