For electricity tariffs “there is finally good news” while for gas it is not yet time for reductions. This is the forecast by Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, according to which “the estimated variation on the basis of wholesale electricity prices, which have dropped on the pressure of gas prices, is of the order of 25%, approximately 16 cents euro less per kWh which should bring tariffs back towards 50 cents per kWh”. The Arera will announce the change by the end of the year. As for gas, Tabarelli explained to ANSA, “a 20% increase in December bills to 1.48 euros per cubic meter” is expected.
The good news for electricity tariffs – for the protected market – comes “also thanks to the calculation method which sees an adjustment every three months and with the last one done at the end of September, when gas prices were at their highest, it is now a decline is inevitable”, explains Tabarelli. The drop in the tariff leads, “for a typical family that consumes 2700 kWh per year, to a reduction of 430 euros less on an annual basis. For the next quarters – estimates the president of Nomisma Energia – further reductions are expected, both for the recent dynamics of gas prices and the probable corrections that the government will introduce in particular for the ceiling on the prices of electricity from renewables”. For gas, “following the changes in the calculation mechanism introduced last October” by Arera (the Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment) again for customers with enhanced protection, “tariffs are more unstable and follow the average monthly, with that of December which will be calculated at the beginning of January” recalls Tabarelli. “Even with low prices around 80 euro/MWh in recent days, as is probable, the December average will still be up on the previous month, as at the beginning of the month the values were almost double the current ones, over 140 euro/MWh – Tabarelli recalls again – The effect will be a 20% increase in gas bills in December to 1.48 euro/cubic metre. For a typical family that consumes 1400 cubic meters a year, this increase compared to the previous month is equivalent to greater spending , on an annual basis of EUR 360. The decreases for gas bills should only be postponed on the January average, which will be calculated at the beginning of February and, if the current TTF prices of the Amsterdam market of 80 euros were to remain, the reduction potential would be 30%”.
Tabarelli also observes that “the demand from households and businesses has slowed down both for a climate issue” given the current milder temperatures than the average for the period “and for savings in consumption between November and December between 10 and 15% “. There was also a drop in demand in Europe, observes Tabarelli, noting however that “Holland and Germany have accelerated in building other regasification terminals, while we are slowing down on Piombino, despite the pronouncement of the Tar” which rejected the request for suspension. “We have to intervene on the fundamentals – Tabarelli pointed out – on the structures”. To find out the new electricity tariffs for the protected market valid for the first quarter of 2023, it will be necessary to wait for the publication in the Official Gazette of the budget law which will have to confirm the resources to eliminate system charges and after the Arera will announce the change. expected by 29 December. As for gas, the new tariffs of the protected market are expected on 3 January 2023.
CODACONS, FOR GAS + 2 THOUSAND EUROS PER FAMILY
“If Nomisma Energia’s forecasts were to be confirmed, the sharp -25% drop in electricity would be equivalent to savings on an annual basis equal to 432 euros per family on the electricity bill” states Codacons, which calculates the repercussions of upcoming tariff updates for consumers’ pockets.
“A 25% drop in electricity tariffs would bring the average electricity bill to 1,350 euros per year per family, with a reduction compared to the expenditure incurred in the whole of 2022 (1,782 euros) of no less than 432 euros – analyzes the Codacons On the contrary, a 20% increase in gas, as envisaged by Nomisma, would bring the fixed tariffs to 1.48 euros per cubic metre, equivalent to an average annual expenditure of 2,072 euros per family. The future trend of electricity and gas prices in 2023 is weighed down by numerous unknown factors – says Codacons – After the mild climate of recent weeks, the arrival of cold weather in January and February could cause gas prices to jump upwards, with effects on the Monthly tariff update by Arera. It will then be necessary to understand if and how the price cap launched by Europe will be implemented, a mechanism on the real effectiveness of which there are many doubts” concludes the association in defense of consumers.
