美國初領失業救濟金的人數21.6萬，美國第三季實質國內生產毛額(GDP)季增3.2％，雙雙優於市場預期，市場擔心美國FED明年會持續升息，加上電子類股高庫存的利空頻傳，譬如全球記憶體大廠美光，Q1營收幾乎腰斬，預計明年要裁員10％，並大砍資本資出，不斷重挫市場投資信心，所幸美國道瓊指數仍堅守在前波低點之上，季線並沒有跌破，KD指標已經落底，美股不至於持續破底，預計道瓊將在33000缺口之上，持續震盪打底。
台灣外銷出口訂單三連黑，明年經濟恐出現衰退，從資金面來看，美國連續大幅度的升息，美國基準利率已經高達4.25％，台灣維持低利率，重貼現率只有1.75％，美、台利差越來越大，美元兌換新台幣卻能維持強勢，國際資金沒有撤離台灣，即使外資近期持續賣超台股，只有資金沒有離開，隨時都會再進場大買台股，唯獨國際股市劇烈上下震盪，離封關又不到1個月，下周開始到封關前，大盤將持續量縮震盪機率較大！
I believe that many investment friends will have a question in mind: why do stock prices keep falling even though the stocks in their hands have continued to grow in revenue and profit, such as electronic paper company Yuantai (8069-TW), third-quarter earnings per share were 3.72 yuan, a quarterly increase of 78% and a single-quarter record. The latest November revenue increased by 19%, which was the second highest in history. well, but the stock price didn’t rise The main reason is that the stock price reflects the “future”, not the present, let alone the past. the stock price continues to rise. The downward trend reflects that there are more and more “future” competitors of e-paper, and the company’s gross profit and profit margin may be compressed in the future, causing the price to continue to decline of the shares.
When it comes to fundamentals, the first thing most people think of is the “financial report.” As long as they study “financial reporting” well and understand financial data such as revenue, profit, and price/earnings ratios, can they make as much money as Buffett? In fact, in the past, when Buffett talked about fund managers who worked hard to study balance sheets, they all said they drove by looking in the rearview mirror, so when investors study stocks, in addition to fundamentals and technicals, they also need to focus on the future development of industry and economy.
There is an accounting market at the end of every year. Also this year, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes, Taiwan’s stocks soared more than 2,000 points for the first time in November. last half of this year, we need to grab the tail of the accounting market and match it For the possible development of the “future” of the industry, you can first think about the industries that may have peak season benefits before the Lunar New Year. Chinese New Year can place an order through an online e-commerce company, and some shipping and logistics companies will deliver the goods after placing the order. Some people love beauty. People can also take advantage of the ten-day holiday in Chinese New Year, which can be used as a recovery period after plastic surgery, and do some small plastic surgery before the year, which will drive the explosion of beauty business opportunities. In addition, during the Chinese New Year holiday, people can also choose to travel, or stay at home and play video games, there will be business opportunities, and the relevant stock groups are ordered as follows, among which you can pay attention to Rongyun next week (2607-TW), EVA air (2618-TW), icon (3293-TW), Keyan (1786-TW)
Winning Fortune (2607-TW)
The industry is engaged in the business of touring airport bus transportation and empty container leasing business. Even if the epidemic situation returns to normal, the business will basically reverse. Some people outside the industry have 25,000 Evergreen tickets and 49,000 Evergreen airline tickets. They began to obtain Evergreen Logistics’ shares in October last year, and began to consolidate Evergreen Logistics’ revenues, which increased Evergreen’s revenues, and then acquired the capital of other small logistics company of the Evergreen group. strength of the business. The benefits for the development of the surrounding 75,000 ping land can be expected. In November, revenue was 130 million yuan, an annual increase of 26%. There are also signs of gradual increase. The current price/earnings ratio is only 9 times Above, the breakthrough has a clear meaning and is expected to continue challenging new highs next week!
EVA air (2618-TW)
China has confirmed that it will continue to unblock, and the temporary lockdown and centralized quarantine will also be changed to domestic quarantine. Disney is also preparing to open, and cross-strait flights will return to normal, and global shipments will return to normal. by 15%, but the share of aviation increased 7 times. There will be 10 days of Chinese New Year holidays this year. The tariff for Japan will increase 2-3 times. Affected by it, it remained above the 28 yuan support line, and the bullish pattern has not changed.
Icon (3293-TW)
The United States has now opened six states to engage in online gaming, and IXIANG has entered three of these continents and continues to line up in the European market, increasing its monthly revenue and stabilizing above the billion mark. 10.5 yuan, and it is estimated that the full year Profit can reach more than 42 yuan. According to the current stock price estimate, the price-earnings ratio is less than 10 times. November turnover is 1.02 billion, an annual increase of 11%, which is the second highest this year. Profit is stable. After the stock price exceeded the full level of 400 yuan, stable upward pad , the key price of 420 fails to break down and is expected to rise to a new high next week.
Keyan (1786-TV)
In 2016, a large hyaluronic acid producer in Taiwan signed a five-year 120,000-dose alliance with Nestle Group in 2016. Many people have knee aging and degeneration problems, which also drives the demand for hyaluronic acid. rose 16% year on year, and trading activities gradually strengthened. Recently, the stock price fluctuated in the range of 52.5-56 yuan, closing this week The price closed at a relatively high point in the range and the probability of breaking through next week is quite high!
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