By the way 24 channels said Eugenia Gaber, an analyst at Carleton University’s Center for Turkish Studies. According to her, it is now very difficult to predict what the results of next year’s elections will be.
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There is now a shaky balance between the government and the opposition. As Gaber said, the results of polls and evaluations change all the time. At first the opposition can go ahead, then the government takes a few steps and its support grows again.
Theoretically, the president of Turkey in the elections can change. In principle, there are reasons for this,
the analyst said.
Factors influencing the upcoming presidential elections in Turkey
However, according to Gaber, the evolution of the political situation in Turkey depends on several factors.
- First, the question is whether the mayor of Istanbul will be able to participate in the elections. Ekrem Imamogluwhich is called the main potential rival of the current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan In mid-December, Imamoglu sentenced to more than 2.5 years in prison.
- Secondly, it is not yet clear whether the mayor of Istanbul can become the only candidate of the opposition forces in the presidential elections in Turkey. After all, there is also the leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party Kemal Kilicdarogluwhich can qualify for participation in the presidential elections.
Evgenia Gaber on how elections in Turkey could affect position vis-à-vis Ukraine: watch the video
Turkey’s position on Russian aggression against Ukraine
As an analyst at Carleton University’s Center for Turkish Studies explained, regardless of the results of the presidential elections, there will be no cardinal changes in Ankara’s stance towards Ukraine.
None of the political forces in Turkey recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and do not support Russian aggression against Ukraine. In this matter, Ukraine has clear political and diplomatic support from Turkey.
“Ukraine has nothing to fear”
According to the analyst, even if Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes president again, a decrease in anti-Western nationalist rhetoric can be expected.
If Erdogan remains president, then there will be no more election pressure hanging over him. May “relax” and escalate less,
observed Gaber.
If the opposition comes to power in Turkey, then it will have more pro-European feelings and will try to re-establish contacts with the West.
“Therefore, Ukraine also has nothing to be afraid of. It’s not a fact that it will get better. But it will definitely not get worse,” Gaber said.
Turkey’s position on the war in Ukraine: briefly
- Turkey provides significant support to Ukraine in the war against Russia. In particular, with the assistance of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a “grain corridor” was launched through which Ukraine exports grain abroad by sea.
- At the same time, the Turkish president maintains close relations with the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Erdogan systematically proposes to organize negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.
- Maximum of Turkey strives to show the worldthat this war cannot be decided without your participation. According to the chief adviser of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ivan Us, it seems that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying not to lose international prestige, but also to be important for Russia.
