China’s economy is unusual this year.
The combination of major changes not seen in a century and the epidemic of the century has put the Chinese economy under pressure. Looking at the world, the international environment is complex and severe, with strong winds and waves, global economic demand is weak, and inflation is high; looking at the country, the epidemic keeps recurring and economic development is facing unexpected changes and downward pressure.
In the face of hardships and obstacles, the Central Committee of the Party united and led the entire Party and people of all ethnic groups in the country to face hardships, stepped up macro-control efforts, steadily improved the quality of development and maintained the economy and social stability.
Economy under pressure
In October this year, many people are eagerly awaiting the release of China’s third quarter economic data. There is a reason for this expectation. In the first quarter of this year, my country’s GDP grew 4.8% year on year, but due to unexpected impacts such as the epidemic, economic growth in the second quarter fell to 0.4%. Can the Chinese economy withstand the pressure and reverse the downward trend?
Facts have proved that China’s economy has stood the test. In the third quarter, my country’s GDP grew by 3.9%, and the recovery momentum continued in October and November. Among them, the main economic indicators such as industry, service sector, investment and consumption also continued to improve, and the overall recovery trend was maintained.
“China has stabilized the macroeconomic market and its economic functioning has remained within a reasonable range, which is not easy in light of the impact of the epidemic.” Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said.
From a global perspective, China’s economic performance is still outstanding. Among them, Chinese consumer prices rose moderately, in stark contrast to high global inflation. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, my country’s consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2% year on year. At the same time, in October, the CPI in the euro area increased by 10.6% year on year, reaching a record high. Although the year-over-year increase in the US CPI in November was 7.1%, it was the lowest since January of this year. Globally, inflationary pressures are more persistent than previously thought, with headline inflation expected to reach 9.5% in 2022, said Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economy Research Bureau of the Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, said that against the backdrop of growing uncertainties in the external environment and the spread of domestic epidemics, China’s economy has been under pressure, it has continued to recover, and has made steady progress. economic resilience.
Constantly improve the quality of development
On December 9, the large domestic passenger aircraft C919 was delivered to China Eastern Airlines. This means that China has become the fourth country in the world capable of producing its own large passenger aircraft after the United States, France and Russia.
The improvement in the quality of China’s economy is even more impressive. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the value added of my country’s high-tech manufacturing industries above the designated size increased by 8% year on year, 4 .2 percentage points faster than all industries above the designated size. Among them, the vehicle and aerospace equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.7%, and the electronic and communications equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.5%.
While industrial upgrading is accelerating, investment in high-tech industries is also accelerating. Various places have promoted the construction of major projects such as new energy and new medicine, and strengthened the manufacturing chain to strengthen the chain, which has strongly supported manufacturing investment. In the first 11 months of this year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 19.9% year on year, 14.6 percentage points higher than total investment.
This can also be seen in the use of foreign capital in my country’s high-tech industries. In the first 10 months of this year, the actual use of foreign capital amounted to 1.0898 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.4% year on year. The effective use of foreign capital in high-tech industries increased by 31.7%, of which the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 57.2% and the high-tech service industry increased by 25%. .
It is worth noting that the actual use of foreign capital in the central region and the western region increased by 33.6% and 26.9%, respectively, and the growth rate was significantly faster than that of the eastern region, and much of it came from the manufacturing industry. In terms of origin, actual investment in China from South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan increased by 106.2%, 95.8%, 40.1% and 36.8%, respectively.
From the point of view of the overall economic market, the key industries related to the national economy and people’s livelihood are in good shape. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, my country’s wheat production hit a new high this year and remained stable at more than 1.3 trillion catty for eight consecutive years. At the same time, all localities are actively doing a good job of ensuring the production and supply of energy resources. It is truly rare that the world is faced with increasingly severe food and energy crises.
Furthermore, the data from the new energy auto industry is particularly eye-catching. In the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.253 million and 6.067 million respectively, an increase of 1 times over the previous year, and the market share reached 25%. At the same time, new energy vehicles have accelerated their pace of going abroad.
Guo Liyan said that this shows that my country’s low-carbon and green transformation is accelerating, and in addition to boosting economic recovery, it has also given new impetus to development. At the same time, the quality of China’s economic development has improved, with obvious spillovers, and has also played a stabilizing role in restoring global economic order.
In 2019, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “ensure that the economy achieves reasonable quantitative growth and constant qualitative improvement”. In 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “promote the constant improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of quantity”. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China called for “promoting the effective improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of the quantity.” Today’s Chinese economy is interpreting the quality-quantity dialectic with concrete results.
Prospects for next year
Looking to 2023, China’s economy will still face severe internal and external challenges. From an external perspective, downside risks to the global economy are increasing during the interest rate hike cycle, and deglobalization and geopolitical conflicts have increased development uncertainties. From a domestic perspective, the “triple pressure” of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations has not been fundamentally resolved, and the pressure on economic functioning is still high.
In early December, the Central Committee’s Political Bureau stressed, analyzing and studying next year’s economic work, that it is necessary to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, comprehensively, accurately and comprehensive the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development model, focus on promoting high-quality development, and better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better overall development planning and security, comprehensively deepen the reform and opening up, vigorously enhance market confidence, organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, and focus on stabilizing of growth and employment, stabilize prices, prevent and defuse effectively the main risks and promote the overall improvement of economic operation.
Wei Qijia said that the central government puts stable growth first, reflecting the idea that development is the fundamental solution to the difficulties on the way ahead. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, under the influence of various macro policies, we have reason to have full confidence in the economy in 2023.
To this end, it is necessary to continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, strengthen coordination and cooperation of various policies, and form a joint force to promote high-quality development. Policy implementation should also pay more attention to effectiveness and accuracy.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said the central government has clearly stated that it should vigorously increase market confidence and understood the core of the problem. Market confidence will have an important impact on the effectiveness of policy implementation .
At the same time, there is a need to better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. The pragmatic move to optimize epidemic prevention and control will help further stabilize expectations and reduce the uncertainty caused by epidemic prevention and control. It is necessary to seriously implement the “two unshakable” and strengthen the driving force and vitality of socialist modernization. We must resolve to promote various reforms and further release the institutional and institutional barriers that hinder development.
We believe that in 2023, China’s economy as a whole will improve and grow steadily, which is a good start for the global construction of a modern socialist country.
(Huang Xiaofang and Xiong Li)
[Redattore responsabile: Xu Dan]
