France: predictions, odds, history… But damn, who’s the favourite?

Argentina and France meet again, four years later, in this Sunday’s World Cup final. Predictions begin to be refined two days before the shock. Here are the main odds and an overview of the history of the clashes…

[Mise à jour des cotes le 16 décembre 2022, à 16h50] Is there really a favorite? While France and Argentina will battle it out for the third star at the World Cup this Sunday 18 December (kick-off at 4pm), early predictions for this anthology final are extremely tight. The odds of the main bookmakers and online betting sites demonstrate this: France’s victory is 2.69 on average two days before the final match of the World Cup, when Argentina’s is 2.79.

Despite the slight advantage for the Azzurri, so much so that the predictions are not the thickness of a sheet of paper. Here are the odds taken by the main betting sites around 5pm this Friday.

The main odds of Argentina – France

What predictions for the exact score?

As proof, if needed, of the extreme vagueness that still surrounds the outcome of this final: even the odds for the exact score of the match are in a handkerchief. Victory of Argentina or France by 1 goal to 0 as well as a draw 0 to 0 show exactly the same prediction at Winamax for example, ie 6.5. In the end it’s the scenario of a 1-1 draw which is best rated at 5.1 this Friday afternoon.

A 2-1 win is 9.5 for both sides and a 2-0 win is a point higher, at 10.5, but again and again with no lead for either side. The chances of victory are 1.9 for France and Argentina, still in perfect parity.

The history of matches in favor of Argentina

We could always cling to France’s very slight advantage in bookmaker odds, but the story of the comparisons between the Blues and Argentina would tend to rebalance the balance, with an advantage for the Albiceleste. Over a dozen matches since 1930, there have been 6 wins for Argentina, 3 draws and only 3 French victories.

If we remove the friendlies and keep only the World Cup matches, we still find two victories for Argentina in the group stage: 2-1 in 1978, the year in which Albiceleste won the trophy at home and 1-0 in 1930, the year of the very first World Cup, during which the Argentines lost in the final (4-3) against the host country, Uruguay.

But France obviously prevails in the very last match, with the round of 16 of 2018 completely crazy with goals from Griezmann (penalty), Pavard and Mbappé for the brace (4-3). And many of the players from that era are still on the pitch in Qatar this year, unlike those of 1978 and 1930…