Posted December 14, 2022 at 5:06pmUpdated 14 Dec. 2022 at 18:14
A spectacular step in the defense of Ukraine. Almost ten months after the start of the Russian invasion, the United States will supply Kiev with the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system, one of the most efficient in the world.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to approve the decision this week and forward it to the White House for final green light, according to US media, which quoted two officials Wednesday who spoke on condition of anonymity. It would appear that only one battery is delivered, at least initially.
A change of doctrine
The United States has long been reluctant to provide such a sophisticated system, as it could have been perceived by Moscow as an escalation. Its cost is also very high: between 200 million dollars and 1 billion dollars for the battery depending on the model and 3 million for the missile.
But the Pentagon has admitted that reality on the ground has changed as Russia destroys Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure as the country enters a freezing winter. The Kremlin has systematically targeted civilian targets since mid-October. Kiev has already counted eight waves of 60 to 100 Kalibr cruise missiles, or Iskander ballistic missiles, and kamikaze drones. Ukraine said on Wednesday it had destroyed an entire swarm of 13 Iranian-supplied Shahed drones.
Almost learnable
The Patriot system, designed in the late 1980s, has proven its effectiveness in recent years in Iraq and the Gulf. It can almost unstoppably intercept any air threat within a range of 60-160 km, provided it is deployed in the right direction. The Saudis have had the bitter experience of being shot in the back by Iranian and Yemeni drones.
This mobile battery consists of a high-performance radar and eight launchers of four interceptor missiles each. The latter can fly at 3 or 4 times the speed of sound, making them effective against almost any fighter aircraft or cruise missile, but less effective against ballistic missiles. The battery delivered to Kyiv will probably come from the Polish or Romanian arsenal (this system has already been sold to about fifteen Washington allies).
Order goals
However, this provision will not upset the conflict situation. While Ukrainian soldiers have demonstrated spectacular speed in learning about NATO weapons, it would take months to master this system. Deploying and maintaining each battery requires a hundred soldiers, though only three are enough to fire a shot. Furthermore, if a Patriot battery offers a “bubble” of protection a hundred km in diameter, the area of Ukraine is 660,000 km2…
Above all, any anti-aircraft system runs the risk of being overwhelmed by a salvo of several missiles. Russia practices just this kind of so-called saturation attack that combines powerful missiles and suicide drones. These can only carry a 50kg load but are cheap and therefore available in large numbers.
The parade consists in organizing the anti-aircraft defense in a “multilayer” system, it is explained to the Paris Air Force and Space, with integrated short, medium and long range interceptors to distribute the targets: it is a question of not practicing “overkill” ( wasting several missiles on the same target) while making sure no enemy missiles get through anyway.
Above all, it is important not to consume sophisticated, and therefore rare, missiles against less destructive vectors, or aimed at relatively unimportant targets, which means that the flight profile of the threat must be identified very quickly. A reasoned fire policy that Ukraine does not currently practice, but which must be followed with the Patriot, paired with other interceptors, explains the same source. At the same time, Paris confirmed the shipment of SAMP/T Mamba anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.
If the Patriot batteries are not operational before February-March, the good news could come from another side. The Pentagon estimates that Russia has nearly exhausted its stockpiles of missiles it uses in Ukraine to the point where it has to henceforth to resort to obsolete machinery, inefficient or even dangerous for their servants. kyiv recently estimated that Moscow would only have 120 Kalibr missiles out of 900 and 270 Iskander missiles out of 500. Enough to fire just over half a dozen salvos.
