The strongest observed Arctic cyclone above 70 degrees N latitude occurred in January 2022, northeast of Greenland. A new analysis shows that while weather forecasts accurately predicted the storm, ice models grossly underestimated its impact on the region’s sea ice.
The January 2022 cyclone had the lowest estimated center of pressure since satellite records began in 1979 above 70 degrees north. It was an extreme version of a typical winter storm.
The results of the study, conducted by the international team led by Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth of the University of Washington in the US city of Seattle, suggest that existing models underestimate the impact of large waves on ice floes in the Arctic Ocean. .
“The six-day sea ice loss was the largest change we could find in historical observations since 1979, and the area of ice lost was 30% greater than the previous record,” summarizes Blanchard-Wrigglesworth. “Ice models predicted some loss, but only half of the actual loss we’ve seen.”
Global climate change doesn’t appear to be responsible for the cyclone: Researchers haven’t found a trend of increasing strength of intense Arctic cyclones since 1979.
Panorama of the Arctic Ocean from a vessel in October, when the ocean surface typically begins to freeze. (Photo: Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth/University of Washington)
During the storm, record winds howled over the Arctic Ocean. The waves reached 8 meters high offshore and remained surprisingly strong as they broke through the sea ice. The ice rose and fell 2 meters near the edge of the ice shelf, and NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite shows that the waves reached up to 100 kilometers towards the center of the ice shelf.
Six days after the storm, sea ice had shrunk significantly in stricken waters north of Norway and Russia, losing more than half a meter in thickness in some places.
The new analysis shows that atmospheric heat from the storm had little effect, meaning some other mechanism was responsible for the ice loss. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth suggests that perhaps the sea ice was thinner before the storm than the models had calculated. Another possibility is that the storm waves ruptured the ice floes with more force than models predicted as they penetrated deep into the ice sheet. Or perhaps the waves lifted deeper, warmer water and brought it into contact with sea ice, melting the ice from below. It is not excluded that there are other causes, even if the three mentioned seem the most plausible.
The study is titled “Record Arctic Cyclone of January 2022: Characteristics, Impacts, and Predictability.” And it was published in the academic Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. (Font: NCYT de Incredibles)
