The rise in consumer prices slowed down in the United States in October, to 6.0% over a year against 6.3% in September, according to the PCE index, favored by the American Central Bank (Fed), and released Thursday by the Department of Commerce.
In just one month, inflation remained stable at 0.3%, surprising analysts who had expected a slight acceleration and were counting on +0.4%.
Inflation, which has been very high for a year, at levels not seen since the early 1980s, is the priority of the Fed, which raises rates to curb consumption, and therefore the economy. This should help ease this pressure on prices.
The PCE inflation index is the one he favors, and he wants to bring it to 2%, a level considered healthy for the economy.
Another measure, the CPI index, which refers in particular to the indexation of pensions, and had been published two weeks earlier, also showed a slowdown, to 7.7% over one year against 8.2% in September, falling to the lowest level since January 2022.
Furthermore, households saw their income rise by 0.7% over a month in October, according to the government, a stronger-than-expected increase and higher than September’s (0.4%). This increase is due to increases in wages, but also in social benefits and state aid.
Even the Americans have accelerated their spending which, as expected by analysts, is up by 0.8% (against +0.6% in September).
In particular, they took out banknotes and bank cards to buy petrol and cars, but also to eat and stay overnight.
“Consumer spending remains resilient in the face of 40-year high inflation and rising borrowing costs,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at HFE.
However, this consumer spending, in goods and services, should support US growth, which rebounded in the second quarter after a contraction in the first half.
Especially since the Christmas season started with a bang, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotion days.
Full-season sales are expected to increase 6 to 8 percent from last year to reach $960.44 billion, the National Federation of Distribution NRF anticipates.
However, the risk of a recession still hangs over the US economy.
But the Fed chairman, who is battling high inflation by raising the cost of credit, at the risk of slowing the economy too much and causing a recession, was optimistic on Wednesday.
The possibility of a “soft landing” for the US economy, which would see inflation rebound without plunging the US into a recession, is “very plausible”, estimates Jerome Powell.
/ATS
