New Taiwan dollarThe biggest rally in 25 years may be reversed and may drop to 33 yuan before the first quarter of next year, the reason is that the upcoming global economic downturn will impact Taiwan’s technology exports.
Mizuho Bank and RBC Capital Markets expect the US dollar to appreciate more than 4% this month.New Taiwan dollarcould fall toNew Taiwan dollar 33 yuan about 1 US dollar.New Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate against the US dollar on Monday (28) aNew Taiwan dollar The price closed at 31.012 yuan, with a heavy depreciation of 1.07 cents.
“The last rally put theNew Taiwan dollarIt made up some of the lost ground, but as the semiconductor economy deteriorated, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained at a low level and economic growth sustainedNew Taiwan dollarThe argument seems untenable. “
HP, Dell (DELL-US) and other big tech companies are laying off workers one after another in response to the continued decline in demand for personal computers (PCs). China’s economic slowdown is also not helping Taiwan’s exports. China is Taiwan’s largest export market, and export sales are a major source of foreign exchange earnings.
TSMC (2330-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), Ho Hai (2317-TW) and three other Taiwanese tech giants could still have an eye-catching profit performance in a short period of time, but Bloomberg Industry Research strategist Marvin Chen believes that Taiwan’s tech industry’s earnings growth could slow or even shrink by next year.
AlthoughNew Taiwan dollarIt has rebounded recently, but this year as the interest rate gap between Taiwan and the US widensNew Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate against the US dollar is still depreciating by more than 10% and could post the biggest drop since 1997 for the full year. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 375 basis points this year, but Taiwan’s central bank has only raised interest rates by 50 basis points.
“In the medium term we expectNew Taiwan dollarIt will return to the price of 32-33 yuan, because the economic downturn will drag down Taiwan’s electronic export demand. The pace of interest rate hikes by the central bank is also slower than that of the Fed. Compared to neighboring countries,New Taiwan dollarit will also remain weak. “
(Partners are not allowed to reprint this article)
