Has the sixth wave begun? The increase in covid cases in the country has generated susceptibility in the population. Two epidemiologists have indicated that Bolivia has not yet entered that stage, but needs to be prepared.
“Despite the increase in cases, we have not yet entered a sixth wave,” epidemiologist Yercin Mamani told Página Siete, who explained that there are three criteria to determine the arrival of a new wave.
As a first criterion, cases must exceed the safety threshold, for this wave between 1,000 and 1,500 cases must be registered. 348 were reported last week.
As for the second criterion, the cases must double from one week to the next, which has not happened either because 221 cases were recorded in week 45 and 348 cases were reported in week 46, i.e. there was only one 57% increase
The third criterion has to do with the response of the health system. “If all the intensive care beds are full, it means that we are in a new wave, because the response capacity is outdated,” she clarified.
At the moment – according to the Ministry of Health – there are 58 occupied hospital beds, 15 in intensive care and seven in intermediate care. “This doesn’t even represent 10 percent of the number of covid-enabled beds in the country,” Mamani said.
He explained that Bolivia does not have any of these criteria and that is why it has not yet entered the sixth wave of the pandemic.
But the specialist added that the slight increase in cases in the country is “an alarm for Bolivia to prepare for the new wave”.
The former head of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health, Virgilio Prieto, assured that it is important to take this alarm into account, because there is a “very worrying” increase in cases all over the world, especially in Asia and Europe, where since October they have entered the sixth wave.
Both professionals indicated that preventive measures should be strengthened during this period, the main one being the vaccination process.
Mamani noted – for his part – that in Latin America, Bolivia is the country with the lowest vaccination coverage. Only 57.1% vaccination was achieved with the second dose of the first schedule, when this percentage should reach at least 70% inoculation.
As for the third dose, it indicated that 22% of the population received this biologic and the fourth dose barely reached 5%, when it should reach at least 25%. “It’s low compared to other countries,” he complained.
Prieto explained that many countries are choosing to apply the fourth dose as a safety vaccine because it increases protection against new variants of covid.
He assured that this fourth dose protects 96% to prevent the virus from causing more deaths.
From March 2020 to today, 1,110,324 covid infections have been reported in Bolivia during the first five waves, as well as 22,244 deaths. More than eight strains of the virus have passed during this time.
Mamani explained that in Latin America – where Bolivia is included – BA subvariants are still dominant, but a new Ómicron subvariant, which is already circulating in Europe, is expected to appear for the next wave. These are BQ1.1 and BQ1.2 and BQ 1.8 and BQ 1.10.
The specialist explained that this subvariant is similar to all Omicrons, but according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) the gastrointestinal symptoms return, i.e. nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Loss of smell and taste is reported.
Prieto said the likelihood of death is higher in people who have not received the vaccine.
