Now the question arises how long Western arms supplies to Ukraine can last.
– I think everyone is worried enough now, adds a NATO official Foreign policy.
The brutal war doesn’t seem to be over. On the contrary, the intensity of the fighting is very high, especially in the Donbass region, but also at several points along the long front line that stretches from the north-east in the Kharkiv region to Kherson in the south.
Also, the Russians are launching large numbers of missiles to bring down Ukrainian infrastructure.
In the fight against the initially militarily superior Russian war machine, a number of Western countries have supplied Ukraine with advanced weapons and huge amounts of ammunition.
The length of the war weakens NATO’s preparedness and depletes its stockpiles of weapons
This is obviously not without cost to donor countries, but deliveries are also now going well beyond NATO countries’ own reserves. If the war in Ukraine continues with the same strength, and the war drags on into 2023, and possibly even longer, several countries will run the risk of their own country’s preparedness being at risk.
– NATO is now discussing how to support its members if their stockpiles fall below the levels needed to meet their defense obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty, says an unnamed NATO official, according to Foreign Policy.
But ramping up weapons production takes time. Rising prices of critical raw materials and a lack of skilled labor are factors that will affect how quickly new weapons can be delivered.
The weapons depots were dismantled after the Cold War
During the Cold War, the United States had large stockpiles of weapons in order to be able to respond quickly militarily in the event of a bitter conflict with the former Soviet Union. When the Iron Curtain disappeared and the Cold War ended, our guard was let down. Over the next few years stocks were gradually reduced.
Then crashed in Ukraine. Before long, one Western country after another promised to donate weapons to Ukraine. These deliveries have now been going on for nine months and there are constantly new requests from Ukraine for more weapons to stop the Russian aggression.
– NATO really has no intention of fighting in wars like this
The question is how long the West can supply Ukraine with weapons and how quickly the arms industry can fill the rapidly growing gaps in Western defense. Even without the war in Ukraine, stockpiles of weapons have been depleted since the Cold War.
– NATO really has no intention of fighting wars like this, and by that I mean wars with super intensive use of artillery systems and lots of tanks and ammunition. It has had a compounding effect on already dwindling stockpiles of weapons, says Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow at American Institute of Business.
The Russians have to import weapons from Iran, North Korea and Belarus
At the same time, Russian forces are bleeding. Massive losses of both personnel and military equipment have left Russia vulnerable. There have also been reports that the Russian military is fighting over access to munitions. Russia then approached several countries, including Belarus, Iran and North Korea, to gain access to missiles, drones, tanks and munitions.
Western sanctions are now taking a heavy toll and the Russian arms industry is lying on its back. Western components for advanced Russian weapons are no longer available.