The war in Ukraine: – This is how Kherson can influence the war

After being occupied since the beginning of March, Ukraine managed to recapture the iconic city of Kherson.

– It’s a great day for President Zelensky and all Ukrainians to be able to walk the streets of Kherson together. It also creates a military space of opportunity for Ukraine beyond the winter, says Tom Røseth, associate professor and principal intelligence lecturer at the Norwegian Armed Forces College (FHS).

He believes that Ukraine has military power as well as holding the front line, and this provides opportunities for Ukraine to advance. Kherson was an important Russian bridgehead to central and southern Ukraine, which they have now lost.

– There is still a long way to go before Ukraine can recapture Sevastopol in Crimea, and militarily speaking it will be very challenging. But I think we will see further Ukrainian victories and they will pick up ground this winter. he says.

With film crews and photographers in attendance, the Ukrainian flag was hoisted as the Ukrainian national anthem blared through the previously occupied streets.

The beginning of the end

– Russia’s withdrawal is the beginning of the end of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday when he visited the liberated city of Kherson.

The recapture of the only provincial capital conquered by Putin’s army in the first weeks of the war is a great victory for Ukraine.

– We always believed that we would liberate Kherson. And we are sure that the Russians are now starting to believe that they can never win this war. We see panic in their ranks and we see panic in their propaganda machine, says Yuriy Sak, adviser to the Defense Minister of Ukraine, a BBC.

However, he stresses that the war is far from over, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying on Monday that the Ukrainians’ recapture of Kherson is the beginning of the end of the war.

Important with success

Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen calls the recapture of Kherson by the Ukrainians a great political success.

– It is important that the will of the population and soldiers fight and maintain Western support at a critical moment when there are fears that the will to support Ukraine will wane. So it’s important to show success with the progress they’ve made, says Geir Hågen Karlsen.

He believes it was politically difficult, but militarily reasonable, for the Russians to withdraw. He now believes they will regroup across the Dnipro River and focus instead on a victory in the Donetsk region.

– I think the Russians will strengthen the front line they have now, and rather withdraw some of the best units of conscripted soldiers to put together units for new offensives this winter or spring, says Geir Hågen Karlsen.

– Why is it important for Ukraine to take back Kherson?

– Kherson is the only regional capital that the Russians captured at the beginning of the war and have kept ever since. Militarily speaking, it is difficult to hold a city across the Dnipro River when you have no bridges. The Russians can take advantage of this when retreating across the river and can secure the area with relatively small forces. It is difficult for Ukraine to cross the river, it is a demanding operation, says Karlsen.

Forge of thought Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its war analysis on Monday that Russia is escalating its claims that it is taking control of areas in Donetsk. Tankesmia believes that Russia is trying to emphasize that it is stepping up operations in Donetsk after withdrawing from Kherson.

Little Russian progress

Tankesmia further writes that Russian forces will likely be relocated to Donetsk after their defeat at Kherson. They also write that the Russians may make progress in the Donetsk area in the coming weeks, but do not believe that the progress will be great.

– I doubt that Russia will be able to conquer large areas in the future. There is nothing to indicate this, and the forces deployed are now poorly trained and have low morale. They are not equipped for more complex attacking positions and the willingness to attack when one is so poorly motivated is obviously very low, says Geir Hågen Karlsen.

Hågen Karlsen is not surprised that, among other things, Russian military bloggers are lobbying Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

– It’s a standard Russian tactic. Historically, it has been the Tsar who has been the sympathetic leader, surrounded by inferior advisers. He may well replace people at some point, he’s changed many bosses to blame someone else, says the lieutenant colonel.

300,000 reserve forces

Russia has mobilized 300,000 reserve forces who, according to Kremlin authorities, are undergoing military training to be ready for war against Ukraine. How they will affect the war and when they will eventually be ready for the front is very uncertain.

– The problem is that they are mostly sent to the front before having military training. Then they have to learn the hard way, says Karlsen.

He believes it is necessary to coordinate military equipment such as tanks, communications and logistics. It can take 10 to 20 years to train commanders and personnel capable of coordinating such an operation.

Cannon fodder

– The newly mobilized are actually sent to the front as cannon fodder, without anyone in the Kremlin bothering about it. It’s a complex process that will take many months over the winter to organize, and maybe they won’t be ready until spring, he says.

It also assumes that Ukraine does not advance, so Russia needs these reserve forces to defend itself at all times.

– Can Ukraine manage to take a city like Melitopol and possibly fight all the way to the Sea of ​​Azov to cut off the Crimea peninsula?

– It’s speculation. It will be a large and complex operation where you will have flanks on both sides that you need to protect. I’m not sure if Ukraine will take this chance now or when it finally does. This will be easier when the ground freezes or after it has dried out for the summer. It’s hard to know what the situation will be like in so many months, Geir Hågen Karlsen tells Dagbladet.