Kherson was liberated without a fight… BUT!

Elaf of Beirut: It has always been said of Kherson that three miracles are needed to free it from the Russians. Thanks to today’s recovery, Ukraine has performed one of the three necessary miracles. However, capturing the rest of the region would require Kiev to perform two more miracles, each progressively more complex than the last.

The first of three miracles Ukraine needed was Russia’s failure to make adjustments to the Ukrainian offensive in the south so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces could overcome solid Russian defenses. About two weeks ago, Russia had apparently adapted to the realities of the Ukrainian campaign on the approach to Kherson, increasing the number of forces defending the western bank of the Dnipro River and reportedly building important defensive positions in and around in Kherson.

Finally, on October 25, one of Zelensky’s top advisers, Oleksiy Aristovich, stated that “everything is clear in Kherson, the Russians are renewing their forces and consolidating their grouping there.” For the Ukrainian army, he continued, this means that “nobody is preparing to retreat. On the contrary, the fiercest battles will take place for Kherson.” Three days later, Ukrainian media reported that 1,000 Russian troops had been sent to defend Kherson, bringing the total number to around 30,000.

With this strength, Russia could build a defensive position that would inflict heavy casualties on any attacking force. One of the reasons given by Russian General Sergei Surovikin why they had to withdraw was the difficulty of supplying the Russian garrison in Kherson. Indeed, since July, when Ukraine began using HIMARS missiles to attack bridges over the Dnipro River that Russia has used to supply the city, logistics have already been severely hampered.

The first miracle happened

But Zelensky has indicated since July that his forces intend to recapture Kherson. The first miracle Ukraine needed to realize its dream was for Russia not to take the threat seriously, especially given the attacks on logistics corridors by its forces on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Had Russia taken the Ukrainian threat seriously, it would have started last summer stockpiling large quantities of all major war supplies, especially food, water, ammunition and fuel.

However, when Surovkin took charge of the Russian war effort in October, he hinted that his forces might leave Kherson when he said he might make “tough decisions”. There were many pro-Russian war bloggers and military analysts who speculated that the Russians would turn Kherson into a modern-day “Stalingrad,” where they would fight desperately to keep the city, whatever the cost.

Given the amount of reinforcements and the time Russia had to stockpile supplies, the fear was that they were indeed taking the “Stalingrad” route. They didn’t, and this unexpected decision gave Ukraine the first of three miracles, recapturing Kherson without having to go into battle. But to continue fulfilling Zelensky’s pledge to retake the region, two more miracles are needed.

The second miracle required

The second miracle that Ukraine needs is to overcome geography. While the presence of the Dnipro River was an obstacle for Russia to keep its forces in Kherson supplied, it was also a major obstacle for Ukraine to continue east.

Ukraine would still have to cross the Dnipro River to drive Russia out of the region. If Putin’s forces are driven out of Kherson, they will certainly destroy the bridges on their way out. This is exactly what happened. Once the Russians had cleared the Dnipro River with the last of their strength, they blew up the last three bridges spanning the Dnipro River. A significant effort would now be needed by Ukraine to re-establish the Dnipro River crossing points, and at present the Ukrainian military is unlikely to have the physical capacity to initiate such an operation. Thus, for the time being, Russia is likely to retain control of around 70% of the Kherson region.

The third miracle is that Ukraine should be able to overcome Russia’s significant advantage in artillery and missile launch. Although Ukraine has managed to close the gap by receiving millions of artillery shells and howitzers from the West, Russia is still ahead. However, what likely comes next may be the most decisive.

Putin’s winter offensive?

As part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the deteriorating situation in his war effort in Ukraine, he announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September. Despite the difficulties and significant shortcomings of the Russian state in carrying out this effort – as many as 700,000 Russians are said to be fleeing the border to avoid service – there are now more than 200,000 new soldiers (82,000 of the 300,000 reservists have already been deployed in Ukraine) in preparation for a winter offensive that could completely change the nature of this war.

Surrendering Kherson without a fight and blowing up the bridges across the Dnipro River, Surovikin reserved 30,000 of his best-trained and experienced forces for use in the next offensive. Once this force is ready to launch Putin’s winter offensive (most likely in late December/early January, when the ground is firm enough), it will likely be preceded by a massive new assault on the country’s energy infrastructure. to plunge the country into darkness, and cripple what’s left of the railway system Electric railways, which significantly hamper the Ukrainian government’s ability to supply its forces with basic needs, complicate its ability to move forces on the battlefield and, more importantly, impair your ability to communicate with the forces on the field.

It is still an open question whether the new Russian forces can learn from the (significant) mistakes made during the first nine months of the war. Maybe they won’t. But the odds will be in their favor as fundamentals continue to lean strongly in Moscow’s direction.

Ukraine should celebrate its successful capture of Kherson, but Kyiv and its backers in the West should realize that the Russian loss was not a mortal wound. The greatest danger to Zelensky’s forces will come in the next couple of months, when the ground freezes and Russian reservists are ready for action. Only then will we know whether Ukraine is capable of the other two miracles.

^{Elaph has prepared this report on the website.[1945L’americano}