– Democrats have more reason to be relieved if not satisfied. By-elections usually do much worse for the president’s party.
NORCE researcher Hilmar Mjelde thinks so.
– The media did not properly capture the atmosphere in the country
Counting of votes in the by-elections is still ongoing. The results so far indicate that the Democrats have done much better than expected. The anticipated red and republican wave appears to have failed.
There is therefore much to suggest that the pre-election polls did not fully capture the mood of the American people.
– It is quite evident that opinion polls, or at least the media, have not properly captured the mood of the country. We are at a time when it is very challenging to read the political situation of the country. At the same time, the count is ongoing, so things can still go more in favor of Republicans, Mjelde tells ABC Nyheter.
– The party has perhaps become too extreme for the regular voter
Former President Donald Trump Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP
– Why hasn’t the GOP done even better?
– The party has perhaps become too extreme for the regular voter, especially the independents. They have named many Trump allies who are election deniers and extremists on the abortion issue, the NORCE researcher believes.
He points to two main factors why the elections became more even than previously thought.
– Republicans outperformed in the 2020 congressional elections and therefore had a lower potential margin of victory this year. Second, the Senate elections are more independent elections in which candidates matter a lot. Trump’s selected candidates turned out to be weak candidates, summarizes Mjelde.
– Biden will not get a new policy
– Some political commentators have pointed out that many of the pro-Trump candidates have lost to candidates who have distanced themselves from Trump. Does this mean that Trump is weakened and that the chances of him running for president in 2024 have diminished?
– Yes, it seems so, for now. It may be that Trump is an anchor holding the party and that they have to get rid of him by choosing another candidate in 2024. But I think the situation is still somewhat unclear. Trump’s chosen candidate won in Ohio after all, the US researcher points out.
– If the GOP wins the House, how will it affect the Biden administration for the next 2 years?
– Biden will not get new policies and there will be aggressive hearings and oversight of the Biden administration. Republicans will try to destroy as much as possible for Biden ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Mjelde replies.
– GOP extremists are likely to gain more power
US President Joe Biden. Nathan Howard / Getty Images / AFP
– What will happen to the GOP?
– Republican Party extremists are likely to gain more power within the party. If the party had made a better choice, more moderate Republicans would have been elected, which they did not.
– If the Democrats keep the Senate majority, will it be easier for Biden?
– Simplify scrutiny of judges, ambassadors, and candidates for other leading positions that need Senate approval. If a new vacant seat appears on the Supreme Court, it is absolutely crucial to have a majority in the Senate, says NORCE researcher Hilmar Mjelde.
