news, polls and more from California, Florida and Texas

The 2022 mid-term elections have arrived and here are seven things to look out for in this Tuesday’s mid-term elections:

Who will control the Chamber of Deputies: Of all the main arguments on Tuesday night, this is one that few Democrats discuss as the party is unlikely to control the legislative chamber in January. Given that Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to win a majority, the GOP is very likely to win back the House. The party is on the offensive in House contests across the country, but particularly in the districts that Biden easily led just two years ago, including the seemingly blue districts of Rhode Island, New York, and Oregon.

Who will control the Senate: If control of the House of Representatives seems more like an inevitable loss for Democrats, control of the Senate, currently equally divided, offers a surprising bright spot for the party, aided by voters who harbor unfavorable sentiments towards Democrats. Republican candidates, while disapproving of Biden’s job performance. The Democratic incumbents most vulnerable to the ballot are found in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia, where polls show that each of these races is close. The party is on the offensive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that Biden won just two years ago.

Electoral deniers in key states: Republicans who have repurposed former President Donald Trump’s lies about widespread election fraud are trying to get hold of the election machines in some swinging states. The results in those states could have dramatic consequences in 2024, with Trump on the brink of another presidential candidacy and candidates in crucial states fluctuating for positions they could try to use to undermine the will of voters.

The Latin voters will continue their swing to the right: Republicans will watch if they rely on Trump’s earnings among Latin voters from two years ago. Three House elections in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, with a strong Hispanic presence, will tell part of the story. Latin voters also make up crucial portions of the electorate in Arizona, Nevada and Miami-Dade County in Florida.

The impact of presidential policy: “If we lose the House and the Senate, it will be two horrible years,” Biden said in a fundraiser Friday. It’s a point former President Barack Obama, who has campaigned for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania in recent weeks, made it explicit during his latest demonstration in Philadelphia on Saturday.

Who makes the wave (or who breaks it): the shape of Congress over the next couple of years may be quite evident in the first few hours after polls close on the east coast, even if a handful of big contests are too close to be announced. For the Democrats, a defeat even in two of the three contests heralds a very, very bad night. The party, both nationally and in some states, has increasingly invested its electoral fate in notoriously fickle suburbs. If a Republican wave is coming, the first sighting of high tide will be on the Atlantic coast.

the wait: As most Americans learned two years ago, Election Day can be a misnomer. This Tuesday is when the voting ends. But, in many states, that is also where the count begins. This means that many hotly contested elections could take until early morning or even later this week to decide. This is partly due to the nature of recount, and sometimes recount, but also state laws instructing survey workers how to do their jobs and, in some states, requiring them not to do so until later.