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Breaches of dikes, Wadden in promenade and marshes in the west of the country. A group of scientists studied how the Netherlands changes if the sea level rises by 2 or 5 meters. They call the results “troubling”.
“Sea level rise can also affect the east of the country, through rivers,” says river and delta professor Maarten Kleinhans (Utrecht University), one of the researchers. “We rarely talk about it.”
The worst case scenario
Important to know: the differences in height of 2 and 5 meters calculated by the experts are conceivable in the next 80-150 years. And it’s the worst case scenario, which means the sea will only rise so much if our CO2 emissions don’t decrease.
In the scenarios, the researchers assume that the Netherlands will not take additional measures such as coastal reinforcement. Visions of the future therefore primarily show where and how we need to prepare and adapt, Kleinhans points out. “We want to show where we have to work with rock hard dams and where things can be done differently.”
“We chose those two meters as a scenario because the engineers say we should still be able to handle such an increase with dams and pumps. In the next twenty years we will have to decide whether to achieve it.”
Swamp
Not surprisingly, the relationship is coming out right now. The 27th United Nations Summit on Climate Change begins today in Egypt. There, countries try to make deals to prevent the extreme scenarios outlined by scientists like Kleinhans from becoming reality.
If the Netherlands no longer raises a dam or otherwise intervenes, this could happen to a sea level rise of 2 and 5 meters:
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University of Utrecht / Nieuwsuur
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University of Utrecht / Nieuwsuur
What you see above: Much of the west is silting up or turning into swampy areas (the blue parts on the maps). “These are low-lying areas. When the sea level is high, it is no longer possible to pump out the water after heavy rains.”
When the sea rises sharply, the water level in rivers also rises. The risk of dam breaks is much greater. Kleinhans: “At 2 meters above sea level it will affect half of the country, at 5 meters the whole country. This is due to the seizure of the sea”.
Floodplains are flooded more often and for longer. “The annoyance is creeping further upstream.”
The Wadden Sea is drowning
Without stronger dams, Zeeland, South Holland and Flevoland can be flooded for a long time if the dams break or flood, just like the areas around rivers. So, according to the report, it takes a long time – rather a year than a month – to pump the water back.
Sea level rise has enormous consequences for the Wadden:
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University of Utrecht / Nieuwsuur
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University of Utrecht / Nieuwsuur
The Wadden Islands will partially disappear and start “walking” towards the coast. The Wadden Sea will never be passable again. Kleinhans: “On the North Sea side, the islands are scraping due to sea level rise and sand precipitation in the Wadden Sea. This is how the islands move towards our coast. When they rise 5 meters upwards. , they will get even smaller. I don’t want to live on it anymore. The Wadden Sea is ‘drowning’, biodiversity is disappearing. “
achievable
Of course, the Netherlands will not allow this to happen just like that. We are building more dams and strengthening the coast. But an important conclusion of the research is: there is a limit to how much we can arm ourselves against water. “The Dutch landscape can only be realized to a certain extent,” says Kleinhans. “And we must take this into account in spatial planning”.
In recent years, for example, the Netherlands has already given up on extra land to allow rivers to flow wider and to be able to drain more water during high water. Works well. At least, until now. Kleinhans: “The space for rivers does not work if the sea penetrates more and more into the earth”.
Water must be the protagonist in landscape design.
Scientists wrote their report “What Does Delta Want?” commissioned by Commissioner Delta. He is responsible for the Delta program to protect the Netherlands from water.
Either way, don’t build in floodplains, Kleinhans advises, because high waters are getting higher and higher. Building on those places also leads to further stagnation upstream and thus to an additional risk of dam breaches there. “We will have to make water much more protagonist in landscape design”.
“And climate change really needs to be fought, we have a great interest in it. Not only the African and Asian deltas will have to face the consequences, our delta too.”
Nieuwsuur recently studied misconceptions about climate change. Because there are many misleading reports on this topic:
