The energy crisis in Europe is still a long way from over, according to the British magazine The Economist, which has calculated three scenarios for an energy war with Russia for 2023. And everyone is pessimistic for Europeans.
As the article notes, “if Russia chooses an all-out energy war, the EU will have no chance.”
The Economist modeled three scenarios.
The first. Russia chooses total energy war. It begins with the closure of the Turkish Stream. In Europe, another 15 billion cubic meters of gas are missing per year. Russia therefore decides to destroy the gas import infrastructure from Europe. It will be able to stop flows through Norway’s two largest gas pipelines, depriving Europe of another 55 billion cubic meters of annual volume. Western powers will respond with “secondary” sanctions. The Kremlin then convinces OPEC to announce another million barrels a day of production cuts.
“Europe will have to shell out $ 250 billion in 2023 and $ 200 billion in 2024 just to replace Russian barrels. The annual gas import bill will approach $ 1 trillion. Empty European deposits by November 2023 will remain empty throughout 2024. European solidarity will almost certainly collapse. Panic-stricken Germany may decide to cut electricity exports to France or stop gas supplies to the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Great Britain will also be vulnerable, with low deposits but large gas needs. “ – indicates the publication.
Second scenario. Russia starts by closing the pipeline through Ukraine and Europe loses another 10-12 billion cubic meters per year. The next step is to stop LNG supplies to Europe.
“The West is responding by tightening the oil price ceiling. Russia is urging OPEC + to reduce its monthly production by another million barrels per day. While Russia’s gas revenue will suffer, its oil export revenue will remain remarkably stable. Europe will face additional costs of tens of billions of dollars “. writes the magazine.
Under the third scenario, the Nord Stream pipeline will remain closed. Europe will impose an embargo on Russian oil. For Europe, this scenario threatens a crisis, but not a catastrophe. By the end of 2022 it will lose 84 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, equal to 17% of its annual consumption. In such a scenario, governments would not need to allocate gas to cards. But Europe will have to overpay.
As reported And every dayTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan On November 2, in an interview with TV channel A Haber, he said that the work of Russia and Turkey to create a gas hub, which could appear in Thrace, continues. After the meeting of the Turkish leader with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putindedicated to the creation of a gas center in Turkey, extensive work is underway on this issue.
On October 12, Putin announced the possibility of creating a Turkish energy hub to supply fuel to European markets. He noted that the Russian Federation could shift the lost volume of transit through the Nord Stream into the Black Sea region. The new routes will become major in the supply of Russian gas to Europe.
