A Reuters analysis revealed that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s likely return to power in Israel will spark fears of exacerbating tension with his Arab neighbors, but the Gulf countries that established relations with Israel during his leadership will see it as a regional balancing factor vis-à-vis Iran.
Arab leaders remained largely silent on Wednesday over Netanyahu’s victory in the Israeli elections. The head of the provisional government in Lebanon, Najib Mikati, foresaw the holding of a new agreement to delimit the maritime borders, while Palestinian and Jordanian experts expected new tensions.
In the Gulf region, where Arab states’ concern for Iran’s growing regional power dominates the region’s security strategy, Netanyahu’s uncompromising approach has helped establish relations between him and Arab leaders.
Under the Netanyahu government, Israel concluded agreements to normalize relations with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 and a few months later with Morocco and Sudan.
Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a leading Emirati political analyst, said that Iran is a major source of concern for the Gulf states, including the UAE, and that Israel, regardless of which government takes power, always takes a strong stance against Iran and its nuclear deal with world powers.
“Netanyahu was part of the Ibrahim agreements and signed them, so there is no change in the course of normalization,” he added.
He went on to say that the Gulf states will see Netanyahu’s return as an internal Israeli affair with which they have nothing to do, and will be happy to deal with whomever the Israeli people choose as their leader.
Abdullah added that the victory of what he described as “the worst of the worst on the Israeli political scene” will mainly affect the Palestinians and eliminate any talk of a two-state solution.
Saudi Arabia has not yet normalized relations with Israel, although it has taken some steps towards rapprochement.
Saudi academician Abdulaziz Al-Ghasyan said no further moves should be expected from Riyadh.
Al-Ghashiyan added that for significant changes to occur, there must be a peace process between Palestinians and Israelis, and this is unlikely now under the new government.
Lebanon Agreement
As for Lebanon, Netanyahu threatened to “neutralize” the US-brokered maritime delimitation agreement even though Lebanon still considers itself at war with Israel. Beirut said it received assurances from Washington that the deal would not be destroyed.
Lebanon’s interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, told Reuters over the phone: “We are not afraid of a change of authority in Israel. If Netanyahu or someone else wins, no one can stop this problem.”
He added that US guarantees would ensure the implementation of the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel, despite opposition from Netanyahu, who said it could benefit the armed Hezbollah group that fought Israel.
“Israel cannot go too far in opposing US wishes because it needs American protection, and therefore a Netanyahu-led government is unlikely to tear up the border demarcation agreement,” said Lina Al-Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London think tank Chatham House. The navy, which has been mediated by the United States (…) despite Netanyahu’s strong statements “.
Palestinians and Jordan
Leaders at a summit in Algeria overcame their differences over relations with Israel and renewed their support for the creation of a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu strongly opposed but did not face the elections.
Netanyahu, whose policies have angered many in the Arab world since he first came to power nearly 26 years ago, vowed that a government led by him would act responsibly, avoid “useless adventures” and “broaden the circle of peace “.
But in Jordan, home to millions of Palestinian refugees and their families, his expected victory was greeted with concern.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated at the time of the last government led by Netanyahu to the point that the Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah II, ended part of the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty concluded in 1994 which allowed Israel to use two areas. of Jordanian land On the edge.
Hamada Faraaneh, a former member of the Jordanian parliament, who last April asked a majority of its members to cancel the peace treaty, said Israeli policy during the Netanyahu era was at odds with official Jordanian policy.
The pharaohs added that Jordan fears that increased tension and violence in the Palestinian territories will push more Palestinians to immigrate to the kingdom.
The Jordanian Islamic opposition has called on Arab countries to take a strong position.
Murad Al-Adayleh, secretary general of the Jordanian Islamic Action Front, said the Israeli right is talking today about expelling Palestinians and says there will be no Palestinian state.
He added that the Arab countries must rely on their people and support the resistance of the Palestinians.
HA Heller, a scholar of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Egypt, which was the first Arab country to conclude a peace treaty with Israel and mediated an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, will likely find a way to work. with Netanyahu again.
He added that Netanyahu was also rejecting any aspect of a peace process, which Egypt officially supports, “but they have dealt with it and will deal with it again.”
For his part, Palestinian Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh said that Netanyahu’s victory “is nothing more than a strengthening of extremism and racism towards Palestinians”, stressing that “the results of the vote in the Israeli elections show the growth of extremism and racism “.
Shtayyeh added that “the election results confirmed that there is no partner for peace in Israel,” noting that “the rise of the far right in the Knesset elections is a natural result of the rise of extremism and anti-racism. the Palestinians “.
