Following Boris Johnson’s resignation as Prime Minister this summer, Conservatives have begun the search for a new leader. Initially, only MPs from the party welcomed the candidates who applied, screening the less popular ones in several rounds of voting, until in the end there were only two candidates left: then foreign minister Trasa and Rishi Sunak, whose Resignation from the post of finance minister was a major catalyst for Johnson’s downfall.
Even then, British political scientists predicted it would not go well. According to the deputies, the best leader of the party and the government was Sunak, who won more or less convincingly in all the voting rounds. At one time, when it came time to make a decision for some 160,000 party members, Trasa became a favorite, telling grassroots voters exactly what they wanted to hear so much – namely, that under her leadership, taxes and the regulatory role of the state in the economy would be reduced, and in this way they would be able to stop rapidly growing inflation. Expert economic and financial experts, led by Sunak, explained that this is utter nonsense and that the tax cut (and very substantial) in the face of rising inflation is financial suicide, but Trasa, who has declared himself an apologist of a maximally free market economy, it maintained its position, urging change in the archaic economic system.
It did not go far, because the first steps of the government (the mini-budget announced on 23 September by the new finance minister Kwazi Kwarteng, among other things, an old collaborator and good friend of Trasa), which had no economic coverage, led to to the chaos of the financial markets, a drop in the value of the pound against the dollar and, of course, a sharp decline in the popularity of the Conservative party. At a time when the crisis was at its peak, Trasa for some reason went to Prague to participate in the misunderstood founding event of the European political community initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Last weekend, Kwarteng was fired and Hunt was named the new finance minister, who immediately announced that virtually all previously announced plans for the tax cut would be scrapped. Furthermore, the energy price cap for households (no more than £ 2,500 per year) will only apply for six months, rather than two years as previously announced by the Tras government. It is significant that Trasa arrived very late in the parliamentary session where these changes were announced, listened to Hunt’s speech, but did not comment on this quick twirl in the government’s change of position. With all his behavior, the premier made it clear that Hunt took office against his will and that she herself still does not agree with the decision to change course.
And this already makes us talk not only about the financial and economic crisis, but also about the political crisis, both in the ruling party and in the entire government. Among conservative MPs, Trasa’s authority is almost completely destroyed, and many MPs, more openly and more veiled, speak of the fact that the party and government leader should be replaced before he can collect more soap in his thirst. for reforms. The problem is, it’s hard to do. According to the party’s charter, conservatives could express their distrust of Trasa and announce new elections for leadership no earlier than next September, a year after his election. It is possible to change the statutes, but it requires the support of the majority of lawmakers and, as far as you can understand, several activists have already started to work to ensure this, but it will take some time. The second option is to get convincing support from parliamentarians representing the Tories for an alternative candidate for prime ministerial office. If there was one, the party could have enough influence to force Tras to leave office voluntarily. But the problem is that the Conservatives are currently divided into many small factions (the results of the summer vote for the new leader also demonstrate this), so finding a common denominator could be even more difficult for Trasa to give up its self-confidence. themselves exaggerated. On the other hand, the dissolution of parliament and the announcement of new elections would be political suicide for conservatives right now, because the sociological survey data is unforgiving – after all the nonsense created by the Johnson governments and (mostly ) Trasa, only 29% of voters are ready to vote for the party, while support for the opposition Labor Party has reached 51%.
You can, of course, leave everything as it is and hope that Trasa, having learned his lesson, will not make similar mistakes again. However, it is highly doubtful that she would be the right candidate under whose leadership the Conservatives could hope for good results in the next parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024. Therefore, at present the question is not “if Trasa should withdraw”, but “when. Trasa will have to withdraw “.
