USDA data and forecasts for October show slightly lower production, slightly lower consumption, stable trade, and decreasing inventories for the global wheat market for the current 2022/23 season. The world grain harvest has been reduced by 1.9 million tons to nearly 782 million tons.
The reason for this is a significantly lower grain harvest in the United States and a drop in production in Argentina. Overall, however, production remains at a record high. Argentina’s crop was reduced by 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million. This is due to the reduction of both the harvested area and the yield with widespread drought. The U.S. harvest was revised down from 48.5 million tons to 44.9 million tons two weeks ago by the USDA in the Small Grain Summary Report, so it’s no longer a surprise to the market.
EU production increased by 2.7 million tonnes to 134.8 million tonnes (durum and soft wheat), mainly due to revised upward harvest volumes from Poland and Germany. The Russian wheat star left the USDA unchanged from the previous month at 91 million tons, contrary to most global estimates of up to 100 million tons. The harvest for Ukraine also remained unchanged at 20.5 million tons.
Global consumption will be reduced by 0.9 million tons to 790.2 million tons. World trade decreased by 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million. Behind this are reduced exports from the US and Argentina, while EU exports have been revised up to 35 million tons from 33.5 million tons.
The USDA left Russian exports unchanged at 42 million tons and Ukrainian exports at 11 million tons. Closing stocks projected for 2022/23 are reduced by 1.0 million tons to 267.5 million mainly due to a reduction for the United States.
