Evaluation differences between the army and Gantz on the escalation scenarios on the Lebanese front (AFP)
A report published by the newspaper says so Ha’aretz According to his security analyst, Amos Harel, this Sunday afternoon it is clear that there is a difference between the directives announced on Friday evening by the Israeli defense minister. Benny Gantzabout his issuing directives to the military to prepare for escalation scenarios on the Lebanese front, and the reality of military intelligence and security establishment assessments in Israel.
According to Harel, the prevailing estimates in the army and security system see that the chances of reaching an agreement with Lebanon range from medium to high, and that at the end of the deliberations of the political and security cabinet, on the annual occasion of the war Yom Kippur and the failure of military intelligence to anticipate the outbreak of war, estimates were presented that indicated the possibility of a weak war.
The daily analyst added that the security system in Israel does not see a security threat in the agreement itself and believes that delimiting the borders, according to line 1 and west (the line of Israeli buoys) and then heading south and west to line 23, it poses no threat, not even an inch, to Israeli security interests.
The same source added that the Israeli navy is carrying out continuous patrols and, when necessary, “naval instruments” are also sent north of the aforementioned line. Harel stressed that the agreement does not affect the freedom of maritime movement to isolate the Israeli army in the area.
He stressed that the army representatives who participated in the cabinet deliberations said they believed that “the agreement is very good for security”.
The report highlighted that under the new agreement and what is related to the Qana camp, and the compensation that Israel receives from the French company, the expected material loss in Israel is not high and that the security system compares it to the desired one. advantage, which is represented by the establishment of the stability of security against Lebanon. Furthermore, the expected economic damage to Israel as a result of a future war with Hezbollah, albeit for a few days, may be greater by an unquantifiable extent, not to mention the expected loss of life.
Harel revealed that, in light of the fact that the timetable for signing the agreement with Lebanon expires at the end of this month, due to the end of the mandate of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, the army believes that if the agreement does not will be signed, the start date of the extraction of gas from the Kreish field (which the agreement leaves to the Israeli side) must not be postponed, in order not to consider it a submission to the threats of Hezbollah.
According to the report, this will also damage Israel’s deterrent force against Hezbollah, which in this case will initiate a military response similar to the previous times when four drones were launched in early July, shot down by the Israeli army.
Harel concludes that the impression in Israel is that Hassan Nasrallah has not yet decided what to do in case the exploration and extraction of gas from the Karish field begins before an agreement is reached. The army estimates that Nasrallah does not crave war (he has no appetite for war and that he is aware of the dangerous economic and political situation in Lebanon).
However – according to Harel – they realize in the military that much of the wars and operations that have taken place in the past two decades (the Second Lebanon War and a series of Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip) have occurred without prior planning. but rather as a response to an out-of-control escalation. On this basis, Harel says that “defensive means of protection at the northern borders and around sites and gas installations at sea have been intensified in the last month, and operational plans have been completed for an attack on Lebanon in response to a possible move by Nasrallah “.
